WTCN31 CWHX 051800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY 05 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... ALEX A MARGINAL CAT 3 NOW WEAKENING ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 N AND LONGITUDE 54.6 W... ABOUT 225 NAUTICAL MILES OR 420 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS... 176 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. ALEX IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS... 56 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 05 3.00 PM 43.0N 54.6W 965 95 176 AUG 05 9.00 PM 44.5N 51.0W 980 75 139 AUG 06 3.00 AM 45.5N 46.4W 987 65 120 AUG 06 9.00 AM 46.5N 41.6W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 PM 46.8N 36.5W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY A SHIELD OF CIRRUS STREAMS OUT FROM THE HURRICANE ALONG AN OLD COLD FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. HOLLYROOD RADAR SHOWS RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AVLAON PENINSULA. NOTED A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES 320 KM NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE SO THUNDERSHOWERS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY. GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AVALON WOULD BE OVER BY 00Z. THERE IS NO STRONG REASON WHY WE SHOULD DEVIATE FROM OUR 20 TO 30 MM OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOLLYROOD RADAR CAREFULLY FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PUBLIC CAN EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. SWELL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 TO 2 1/2 METRES IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IS THE POSSIBILITY OF UNUSUAL AND RAPID VARIATIONS IN HARBOUR WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 05H00 AND 08H00 LOCAL TIME. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY ALEX IS ANALYSED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE LAURENTIAN FAN THIS AFTERNOON. ALEX WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MARINE DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF THE LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN.. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 10 METRES OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS THIS EVENING. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO SHOW UP AS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED ANNULAR TYPE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE EASILY SPOTTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER ALEX HAS NOW ENTERED COLDER 23C WATER AS IT EXITS THE GULF STREAM AND MOVES INTO THE COLDER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN IT IS RARE FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE TO EXIST NORTH OF 40N. B. PROGNOSTIC THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DISTORTION SO COLDER WATER IS NOW HAVING AN EFFECT. ALEX WILL NOT LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS AND OVER THE LABRADOR CURRENT THIS EVENING. ALEX SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL (I.E. EXTRATROPICAL) AS IT EXITS THE CHC RESPONSE ZONE FRIDAY MORNING. C. PUBLIC WEATHER RADAR FROM HOLLYROOD SHOW 45 DBZ RETURNS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE SO THE NEED FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING IS REMOTE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 05/18Z 75 160 130 60 45 75 55 40 25 35 20 15 06/00Z 50 175 130 50 40 70 50 30 20 25 15 0 06/06Z 40 185 140 40 25 85 65 10 0 20 15 0 06/12Z 30 180 150 30 10 80 75 0 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 30 180 160 30 0 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL