WOCN32 CWHX 120600 CCB
HURRICANE CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN 
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT THURSDAY
12 AUGUST 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

 ....CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 N AND LONGITUDE 79.2 W... ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES OR 145 KM
WEST SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989
MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 12  3.00 AM  18.0N  79.2W   989   75  139
AUG 12  3.00 PM  20.6N  81.1W   984   80  148
AUG 13  3.00 AM  23.8N  82.3W   979   80  148
AUG 13  3.00 PM  27.5N  82.1W   979   90  167
AUG 14  3.00 AM  31.6N  80.6W   994   45   83
AUG 14  3.00 PM  35.1N  78.7W  1000   45   83
AUG 15  3.00 AM  40.1N  75.1W  1002   40   74
AUG 15  3.00 PM  44.3N  70.6W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 16  3.00 AM  47.8N  65.5W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 16  3.00 PM  49.8N  58.4W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 AM  52.9N  48.3W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL SUNDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL 
SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANT STORM SYSTEM. INLAND WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE MAY 
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN ATLANTIC CANADA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF 
ST. LAWRENCE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
CHARLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL ONCE IT MOVES INLAND 
SATURDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS
IT PASSES ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE ON THE WEEKEND.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
AS PER NHC: THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE NHC FORECAST OF CHARLEY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MID-WEEKEND
AGREES WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL MODEL AS WELL AS THE US GFS 
MODEL. WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT TRANSITION WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY RAPID 
AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEHAVE MORE LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TRACK OUT TO 120
HOURS...BASED MOSTLY ON THE UPPER FLOW AND PV STRUCTURE
OF THE GLOBAL AND GFS MODELS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE A TROPICAL FLAVOUR BY THE TIME IT 
REACHES ATLANTIC CANADA THERE IS ALWAYS THE CAUTION THAT RAINFALL
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND THAT WINDS MAY BE BLUSTERY.

D. MARINE WEATHER
WITH THE GLOBAL AND GFS INDICATING LITTLE POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION 
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GALES MAY BE 
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME OVER WESTERN MARINE WATERS THOUGH THEY ARE 
LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL.

END MARSHALL