WOCN31 CWHX 120600 CCA
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT 
THURSDAY 12 AUGUST 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

 ...ADJUSTMENT TO INITIAL POSITION OF BONNIE...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 N AND LONGITUDE 88.2 W... ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES OR 320 KM 
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1010
MB. BONNIE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 12  3.00 AM  27.7N  88.2W  1010   50   93
AUG 12  3.00 PM  30.3N  85.5W  1008   60  111
AUG 13  3.00 AM  34.0N  81.4W  1008   45   83
AUG 13  3.00 PM  38.3N  76.6W  1008   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 14  3.00 AM  44.5N  71.0W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 14  3.00 PM  49.4N  66.3W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 15  3.00 AM  54.3N  60.7W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 15  3.00 PM  58.8N  54.3W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. PERIODS 
OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE 
TRACK OF THE REMNANT STORM SYSTEM. INLAND WINDS APPROACHING GALE 
FORCE MAY REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY REINTENSIFY INTO A STRENGTHENING EXTRATROPICAL 
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ATLANTIC CANADA.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
BONNIE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL INLAND OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS HOWEVER IT MAY REINTENSIFY INTO A VIGOROUS 
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT PASSES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA ON
THE WEEKEND.


5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
THE NHC IS CONCERNED THAT BONNIE COULD STILL STRENGHTEN TO A 
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A RECENT FLARE-UP OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD INDICATE SOME 
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF BONNIE INDICATING IT COULD REGENERATE
A TIGHT CENTER AND BRING BONNIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 
LANDFALL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
BONNIE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTELY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND BECOME RAPIDLY ABSORBED 
BY THE STRONG ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NHC FORECAST OF BONNIE 
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AGREES WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL 
MODEL. SINCE THE MOVEMENT OF BONNIE INTO INCREASING
BAROCLINICITY APPEARS INEVITABLE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT TRANSITION 
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY RAPID AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEHAVE MORE
LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THE SYSTEM 
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A FAIRLY VIGOROUS BAROCLINIC ENTITY.
THE EXPECTED VIGOR OF THE ANTICIPATED EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WARRANTED 
AN UP-DATE OF THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE 
ENVIRONMENT CANADA STORM PREDICTION CENTRES IN QUÉBEC AND ATLANTIC 
REGIONS WILL HANDLE ANY SPECIAL WEATHER MESSAGING THROUGH THEIR 
CENTRES.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TROPICAL PEDIGREE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES CANADA THERE IS ALWAYS THE CAUTION THAT RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND THAT WINDS MAY BE BLUSTERY.

D. MARINE WEATHER
WITH THE GLOBAL INDICATING INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD IT IS LIKELY THAT GALES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THAT
TIME OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WATERS.

END MARSHALL