WOCN31 CWHX 121259 AAB
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.59 AM ADT 
THURSDAY 12 AUGUST 2004.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FROM THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE...HURRICANE CHARLEY IS NOW BEING MESSAGED 
IN BULLETIN WOCN32 CWHX

 ...BONNIE MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 N AND LONGITUDE 86.9 W... ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES OR 275 KM 
WEST SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1010 MB.
BONNIE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 12  9.00 AM  29.0N  86.9W  1010   45   83
AUG 12  9.00 PM  32.1N  84.1W  1008   45   83
AUG 13  9.00 AM  37.2N  79.4W  1008   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 13  9.00 PM  43.3N  74.5W  1006   25   46 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 14  9.00 AM  48.8N  69.1W  1004   25   46 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 14  9.00 PM  53.8N  62.1W  1004   25   46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN QUÉBEC DURING 
THE DAY FRIDAY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM 
REMNANTS. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES 
EARLY SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
BONNIE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL INLAND OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT AND 
EASTERN ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ON SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE CONTINUED LEAVING THE 
MAXIMUM WINDS IN A BAND OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE VERTICALLY SHEARED. AFTER LANDFALL...
BONNIE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
BONNIE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTELY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND BECOME RAPIDLY ABSORBED 
BY THE STRONG ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NHC FORECAST OF BONNIE 
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AGREES WELL WITH THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL 
MODEL. SINCE THE MOVEMENT OF BONNIE INTO INCREASING
BAROCLINICITY APPEARS INEVITABLE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TRANSITION 
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY RAPID AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEHAVE MORE
LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TROPICAL PEDIGREE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES CANADA THERE IS ALWAYS THE CAUTION THAT RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND THAT WINDS MAY BE BLUSTERY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CHC ON BONNIE SINCE
IT IS APPARENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL INTO EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION PRIOR TO REACHING CANADA. ENVIRONMENT CANADA STORM 
PREDICTION CENTRES IN QUÉBEC AND ATLANTIC REGIONS WILL HANDLE ANY 
SPECIAL WEATHER MESSAGING THROUGH THEIR CENTRES AS NECESSARY.


END FOGARTY