WOCN32 CWHX 121800
HURRICANE CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN 
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
12 AUGUST 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

 ...CHARLEY SET TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.2 N AND LONGITUDE 81.3 W...180 NAUTICAL MILES..330 KM SOUTH 
SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB. CHARLEY IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 12  3.00 PM  20.2N  81.3W   980   75  139
AUG 13  3.00 AM  22.7N  82.9W   970   90  167
AUG 13  3.00 PM  26.1N  83.4W   965   95  176
AUG 14  3.00 AM  30.5N  81.9W   976   80  148
AUG 14  3.00 PM  34.5N  79.3W  1000   45   83
AUG 15  3.00 AM  37.7N  76.9W  1002   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 15  3.00 PM  41.2N  73.5W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 16  3.00 AM  44.9N  69.4W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 16  3.00 PM  47.8N  64.6W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 AM  50.4N  59.6W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 PM  53.4N  53.1W  1012   20   37 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS 
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM TRACK OVER SOUTHERNMOST REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY 
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK ON MONDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY 
WINDS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.


5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT CHARLEY IS CONTINUING 
TO INTENSIFY SOUTH OF CUBA.  A SMALL EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT ON 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CHARLEY IS ALSO MOVING OVER SSTS NEAR 30C 
SO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS VERY LIKELY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

AFTER CHARLEY MOVES INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE US IT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE REMAINS OF CHARLEY WILL MOVE 
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE US EAST COAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER LAND. BY THE TIME THE LOW REACHES CANADA IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER 
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN OVER SOUTHERN QUÉBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM IN 
CANADA. THIS REASONING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMNANT LOW MOVING INTO 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE 
NORTHEASTERN US.  THE WEAK LOW WILL BECOME FRONTAL IN THE PRESENCE
OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE EASTERN US.


END FOGARTY/LEWIS