WOCN32 CWHX 130600 HURRICANE CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 13 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... CHARLEY NEAR TO HAVANA APPROACHING CAT 3 IN STRENGTH... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 N AND LONGITUDE 82.6 W... ABOUT 12 NAUTICAL MILES OR 22 KM WEST OF HAVANA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS... 176 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 13 3.00 AM 23.0N 82.6W 965 95 176 AUG 13 3.00 PM 25.4N 82.8W 957 105 194 AUG 14 3.00 AM 29.0N 82.4W 973 85 157 AUG 14 3.00 PM 33.0N 80.6W 1000 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 15 3.00 AM 37.3N 77.9W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL AUG 15 3.00 PM 41.0N 75.6W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 AM 45.0N 71.7W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 PM 47.3N 68.3W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 3.00 AM 49.6N 63.8W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 3.00 PM 51.2N 58.8W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS EXPECTED FORECAST IN CANADA UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY WHEN PERIODS OF RAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY OVER NEW BRUNSWICK ON MONDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT ON MONDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE HUNTER DATA FROM CHARLEY SHOW PRESSURE NOW AT 973 KNOTS WITH SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 95 KNOTS...CLOSE TO BECOMING A CAT 3 HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PRESENCE OF EYE ALONG WITH AN OUTER BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HAVANAS WINDS NOW GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AND INCREASING. B. PROGNOSTIC FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF CHARLIE LIKELY GIVEN GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF WARM SST VALUES OF 30C. CURRENT MOTION IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NUDGED WESTWARD THAN IN PREVIOUS STATEMENT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND..TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. CHARLEY WILL HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES INTO VIRGINIA. THE REMAINS OF CHARLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER NEW JERSEY PENNSYLVANIA BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE REMANNTS THEN MOVE OVER NORTHERN VERMONT BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO THE GASPÉ PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A WEAK BAROCLINIC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE GASPÉ ON MONDAY. THIS TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GEM GLOBAL AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT IT IS OUR EXPERIENCE THAT REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS TEND TO MOVE FASTER THAN PREDICTED BY THE COMPUTER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO FAR AWAY TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED..BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE AND REASONING IMPLIES THAT RAIN COULD FALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC AND NORTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE LEAVE BEHIND HEAVILY SATURATED SOILS. THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. END CAMPBELL