WOCN32 CWHX 131200 HURRICANE CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 13 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... CHARLEY BATTERS HAVANA AND NOW TAKES AIM AT FLORIDA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 N AND LONGITUDE 82.9 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 120 KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS... 176 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 969 MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH AT 17 KNOTS... 31 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 13 9.00 AM 24.4N 82.9W 969 95 176 AUG 13 9.00 PM 27.7N 82.7W 957 105 194 AUG 14 9.00 AM 31.4N 81.8W 994 55 102 MOVING INLAND AUG 14 9.00 PM 35.4N 79.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 15 9.00 AM 39.8N 77.1W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL AUG 15 9.00 PM 43.7N 74.6W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 AM 47.3N 71.0W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 PM 49.3N 67.0W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 9.00 AM 50.6N 61.5W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 9.00 PM 51.8N 56.1W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN PERIODS OF RAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE RECONNAISANCE DATA FROM CHARLEY SHOW PRESSURE NOW AT 969 MB WITH SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 95 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A CAT 3 HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PRESENCE OF EYE ALONG WITH AN OUTER BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EYE WELL SEEN BY NWS RADAR IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. B. PROGNOSTIC FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF CHARLIE LIKELY GIVEN GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF WARM SST VALUES OF 30C. CURRENT MOTION IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS STATEMENT. OUR TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MIAMI TRACK. NOTE THAT MIAMI IS FAVOURING GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS HENCE THEY ARE FAVOURING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS ALSO MATCHES QUITE WELL WITH THE UK MET SOLUTION. NHC STATISTICAL MODELS ARE MORE EASTWARD OF TRACK. CDN GLOBAL PREFERS A SLOW TRACK UP US EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH IS AN OUTLIER. C. PUBLIC WEATHER WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A WEAK BAROCLINIC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN TOWNSHIPS AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON MONDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED..BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE AND REASONING IMPLIES THAT RAIN COULD FALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC AND NORTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE PRIOR REMNANTS OF BONNIE LEAVE BEHIND HEAVILY SATURATED SOILS. THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. END CAMPBELL/MARSHALL