WOCN32 CWHX 140000 HURRICANE CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 13 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... CHARLEY MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND WEAKENING... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 N AND LONGITUDE 81.6 W... ABOUT 25 NAUTICAL MILES OR 45 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ORLANDO . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS... 185 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 13 9.00 PM 28.2N 81.6W 951 100 185 AUG 14 9.00 AM 31.6N 80.0W 980 75 139 AUG 14 9.00 PM 36.0N 77.6W 990 60 111 AUG 15 9.00 AM 41.0N 73.8W 1000 45 83 AUG 15 9.00 PM 45.8N 68.6W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 AM 48.4N 62.0W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 PM 48.6N 55.3W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. NO WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER SHOULD THE TRACK OF CHARLEY NUDGE EASTWARD THEN GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY OVER SOUTHWESTERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS AS PER NHC: THE CENTER OF CHARLEY HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR FLORIDA. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE AT LEAST 125 KT AT LANDFALL...MAKING CHARLEY A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 941 MB. THE CLOSED EYEWALL HAD SHRUNK TO A FIVE MILE DIAMETER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY OVER LAND. B. PROGNOSTIC THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON CURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION OF CHARLEY AS INDICATED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. OUR TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MIAMI TRACK PRIOR TO REACHING THE CANADIAN RESPONSE ZONE. SPEEDS ON VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM REACHES CANADA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM IS TOTALLY ABSORBED INTO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND VORTICITY SIGNATURES DIFFICULT TO FIND BY THEN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE TRACK EASTWARD WHICH COULD MEAN TEMPORARY RE-INTESIFICATION OVER THE WATER AND MORE INTENSE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BY THE TIME CHARLEY REACHES THE CANADIAN RESPONSE ZONE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER WE ARE EXPECTING CHARLEY TO TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND REASONING IMPLIES THAT ENHANCED RAIN AMOUNTS COULD FALL OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE IS LEAVING BEHIND SOME LOCALLY HEAVILY SATURATED SOILS. THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. END MARSHALL/SZETO