WOCN32 CWHX 140600 HURRICANE CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 14 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... CHARLEY IS LEAVING FLORIDA AND HEADING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 N AND LONGITUDE 80.7 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OR 95 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 41 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 14 3.00 AM 30.3N 80.7W 993 75 139 AUG 14 3.00 PM 34.0N 78.8W 990 65 120 AUG 15 3.00 AM 38.8N 75.4W 994 55 102 AUG 15 3.00 PM 43.4N 71.4W 1000 35 65 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 AM 46.5N 66.5W 1005 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 PM 48.5N 60.8W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY, THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE EYE BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. AS EXPECTED, CHARLEY WEAKENED SIGNIFICANLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTRE AND DRYER AIR IS CUTTING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM AS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. B. PROGNOSTIC NOW THAT CHARLEY HAS MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...BACK OVER WATER TEMPERATURES OF MORE THAN 26C...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE. ONCE LANDFALL CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE MARITIMES. THE FACT THAT THE STORM TRACK IS SO CLOSE TO THE COAST THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IF IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD CHARLEY MAY NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST AND IT COULD END UP BEING MORE INTENSE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MARITIMES WATERS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. BASED ON THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 40 TO 60 MM CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STROM TRACK AND THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC HAVE LEFT BEHIND SOME LOCALLY HEAVILY SATURATED SOILS. THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 14/06Z 60 100 60 60 40 60 40 40 20 20 20 10 14/18Z 120 120 60 60 75 75 40 25 20 20 10 10 15/06Z 120 120 60 60 75 75 40 25 0 0 0 0 15/18Z 60 100 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END SZETO