WOCN32 CWHX 141200 HURRICANE CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 14 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... CHARLEY IS HEADING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 N AND LONGITUDE 79.9 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 75 KM SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 14 9.00 AM 32.2N 79.9W 994 75 139 AUG 14 9.00 PM 36.7N 77.0W 996 60 111 AUG 15 9.00 AM 41.2N 73.5W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 15 9.00 PM 44.7N 69.3W 1005 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 AM 47.6N 63.9W 1008 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 PM 48.7N 58.2W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY, THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE EYE OF CHARLEY IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM A RECON AIRCRAFT AT 0900Z INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 88 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF CHARLEY AND NOT MUCH TO THE WEST OF IT...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS. B. PROGNOSTIC NOW THAT CHARLEY IS MOVING ACROSS WATER TEMPERATURES OF MORE THAN 26C...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE. THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE ALREADY APPARENT WITH A VERY ASSYMETRIC RAINFALL PATTERN ON RADAR WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY OCCURING IN NORTHERN QUADRANTS. AFTER LANDFALL CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK BEFORE DAWN MONDAY BEFORE HEADING FOR NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE STORM TRACK IS SO CLOSE TO THE COAST THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IF IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD CHARLEY MAY NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST AND IT COULD END UP BEING MORE INTENSE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MARITIMES WATERS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. BASED ON THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 40 TO 60 MM CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK AND THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC HAVE LEFT BEHIND SOME LOCALLY HEAVILY SATURATED SOILS. THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. MEANWHILE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND LATE MONDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST...THE CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3 METRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 14/12Z 90 110 60 60 55 75 40 30 25 50 20 10 15/00Z 120 120 60 60 75 75 40 25 0 0 0 0 15/12Z 90 110 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END SZETO/MCILDOON