WOCN32 CWHX 141800 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SATURDAY 14 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... MEDIA SOUNDBITE... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 N AND LONGITUDE 78.5 W... ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES OR 60 KM WEST NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 990 MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 14 3.00 PM 34.5N 78.5W 990 60 111 AUG 15 3.00 AM 39.0N 75.2W 995 50 93 AUG 15 3.00 PM 43.0N 71.4W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 AM 46.2N 66.6W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 PM 47.8N 61.0W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 3.00 AM 49.0N 55.4W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 3.00 PM 50.3N 49.7W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN CANADA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN RAIN...PROBABLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CHARLEY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR MRYTLE BEACH SHORTLY AFTER 1.00 PM ADT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF...AND WEST OF THE CENTRE. HOWEVER THERE ARE SPIRAL BANDS OVER THE WATER EAST OF THE CENTRE. CHARLEY WAS MARGINAL HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CROSSED THE COAST BUT IT IS THOUGHT TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT FORECAST TIME. THUS INITIAL INTENSITY IS PUT AT 60 KNOTS. SHEAR HAS ALREADY CAUSED A VERY ASSYMETRIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE CENTRE. B. PROGNOSTIC WITH CHARLEY OVER LAND AND UNDER SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE 500 MB FLOW WILL STEER IT NORTH NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN IT WILL TURN TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE REMNANTS WILL COME UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS ALOFT SO SOME ACCELERATION IS POSSIBLE..GENERALLY A FORWARD MOTION OF AROUND 25 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THAT THE TRACK IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD MOVE OVER WATER BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW ENGLAND...A TRACK THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE OMEGA PATTERN ON THE GFS..SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA ARE 20 TO 24 DEGREES C...SO NO INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT WEAKENING WOULD SLOW AND STRENGTH COULD BE MAINTAINED. IF ANY REFLECTION OF IT REMAINS RECOGNIZABLE AS IT PASSES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL ACCELERATE CONSIDERABLY. THE CONCERN FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER NEW BRUNSWICK REMAINS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL HAS DROPPED THE PRECIPITAION AMOUNTS ALMOST COMPLETELY...HOWEVER THE GEM SHOWS AN 82 MM BULLS EYE...ETA INDICATES ABOUT 40 MM. WE SUSPECT THAT SOMETHING IN THE 40 TO 60 MM RANGE IS LIKELY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHEASTERN QUÉBEC HAVE LEFT BEHIND SOME LOCALLY HEAVILY SATURATED SOILS. THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND LATE MONDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST...THE CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3 METRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 14/18Z 185 195 170 0 130 180 120 0 0 0 0 0 15/06Z 135 190 160 0 0 115 0 0 0 0 0 0 15/18Z 0 160 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END MCILDOON