WOCN32 CWHX 151200 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 15 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ....CHARLEY SOUTHWEST OF CAPE COD AND WEAKENING.. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 W... ABOUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES OR 40 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE COD . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1012 MB. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS... 46 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 15 9.00 AM 41.3N 70.6W 1004 35 65 AUG 15 3.00 PM 43.1N 68.3W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL AUG 15 9.00 PM 44.4N 65.5W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 AM 45.1N 62.5W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 AM 45.6N 59.3W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 3.00 PM 46.0N 56.0W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 16 9.00 PM 46.0N 52.5W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY WHEN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY DURING THAT TIME GALES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL AND DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CHARLEY HAS LOST VIRTUALLY ALL OF ITS TROPICAL IDENTITY AND THE CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. NHC NOTED THAT CONVECTION INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE CENTRE. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS GIVE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF CENTRAL LOCATION. IT IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH A ASSYMETRIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE CENTRE. B. PROGNOSTIC FROM RADAR PATTERNS THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREADED TO 35 KT. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF REDUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 25 TO 40 MM RANGE ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND THE ALONG FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK. THE ETA OMEGA FIELD IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS TRACK. GFS VORT PATTERN AGREES WITH OUR TRACK CLOSELY UP TO THE POINT WHERE IT DROPS THE VORT MAX AND CAN NO LONGER BE IDENTIFIED. CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA THEN DROP IT SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE TRACK PULLS IT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AS IT MOVES INTO NOVA SCOTIA...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA ARE 12 TO 18 DEGREES C...SO NO INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. THE TRACK THEN FOLLOWS THE SPINE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND BY SUNDAY EVENING..IF ANY OF THE TROPICAL REMANANTS ARE STILL IDENTIFIABLE..THE CENTRE IS FORECAST TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK HAS SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISHED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOVA SCOTIA WILL GET LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE MODERATE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AS WITH ANY POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL HAS DROPPED THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE PRECIPITATION BULLSEYE IS WELL OUTSTRIPPED BY THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE INDICATING THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL. WE SUSPECT THAT SOMETHING IN THE 25 TO 40 MM RANGE IS LIKELY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. THE MOISTURE PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY. AFTERNOON. D. MARINE WEATHER GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY IN FUNDY GRAND MANAN LURCHER AND BROWNS BANK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST...THE CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF NEAR 3 METRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. SIMILARLY WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 2-3 M ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY EVENING. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/12Z 100 130 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15/18Z 60 100 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END MARSHALL/LEWIS