WOCN32 CWHX 151800
INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY 15 AUGUST 2004.

THIS IS THE LAST INFORMATION STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED FOR CHARLEY BY 
THE CHC

....CHARLEY LOSES IDENTITY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...

1. DISCUSSION
CURRENT EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT CHARLEY HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY AS A 
CLOSED CIRUCLATION AND A CAN NO LONGER BE ANALYSED AS A POST-
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY..IDENTIFIABLE BY
RADAR..ARE STILL EVIDENT. RAIN..POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL MOVE 
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE 
REMNANTS OF CHARLEY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MARITIMES
MARINE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE 
REMNANTS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. HOWEVER WINDS ARE 
NOT LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
NOVA SCOTIA..NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE MARITIMES MARINE AREAS ISSUED BY 
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON 
POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY.


2. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION CAN BE IDENTIIED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS..SATELLITE OR RADAR. HOWEVER THE REMANTS ARE STILL 
CLEARLY EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. PCPN AMOUNTS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CHARLEY OVER SOUTHERN MASSACHUSSETS 
WERE IN THE 25 TO 30 MM RANGE. GIVEN THAT THE REMANTS ARE LIKELY TO 
ACCELERATE OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THERE IS NO SUPPORT TO SUGGEST HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE 
MARITIMES.

THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMANANTS OF CHARLEY DOES
NOT APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED BY THE CMC GEM REGIONAL..GLOBAL
OR THE NCEP ETA MODELS. THE NCEP GFS MODEL DOES MAINTAIN A WEAK PCPN 
(5 TO 10 MM) MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS WHICH MOVES ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.

REPEAT..THIS IS THE LAST INFORMATION STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED BY CHC
ON CHARLEY.

END LEWIS