WOCN31 CWHX 291800
TROPICAL STORM GASTON INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 29 AUGUST 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

 ... GASTON MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AS A TROPICAL STORM ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.5 N AND LONGITUDE 79.6 W... ABOUT 25 NAUTICAL MILES OR 50 KM
WEST SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB.
GASTON IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 29  3.00 PM  33.5N  79.6W   997   40   74
AUG 30  3.00 AM  35.1N  79.2W  1001   30   56
AUG 30  3.00 PM  36.9N  78.0W  1007   25   46
AUG 31  3.00 AM  38.8N  75.4W  1009   20   37
AUG 31  3.00 PM  41.1N  71.0W  1012   25   46
SEP 01  3.00 AM  42.9N  65.4W  1012   25   46

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
REMNANTS OF GASTON .. COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT ..
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ON TUESSAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER NOVA SCOTIA

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STRONG WINDS FORECAST IN VICINITY OF GASTON.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
EYE ON WATER VAPOUR SATELITE IMAGERY ALMOST CLOSED. HOWEVER RADAR 
CONTINUES TO SHOW PRESENCE OF EYE AT LOWER LEVELS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
TRACK OF GASTON HINGES ON WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN 
STATES TO THE WEST DIGS DOWN.  GFS FAVOURS A SHARPER TROUGH
WHICH DIGS DOWN WHICH CARRIES GASTON ON A MORE NORTHWARD AND FASTER 
TRACK. ETA AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL PREFER THE UPR TROUGH TO BE
MORE SHALLOW HENCE IT TAKES 24 HOURS OR MORE FOR GASTON TO BE
CARRIED AWAY IN THE WESTERLIES. THE GFDL ALSO FAVOURS A TRACK WHICH
IS FURTHER SOUTH ...MUCH IN LINE WITH THE ETA OR CANADIAN GLOBAL.
A SHALLOWER TROUGH WOULD MEAN GASTON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH FOR
A WHILE YET. OUR TRACK FOLLOWS MIAMI TRACK BUT FOLLOWS THE OLD CHC 
TRACK ONCE IT MOVES INTO CANDIAN WATERS. THIS REFLECTS OUR 
UNCERTAINITY WITH RESPECT TO HOW SHARP THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ACTUALLY BE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK MAY FAVOUR MORE PRECIPIATION FOR NOVA SCOTIA 
AND POSSIBLY MORE RAIN FOR NEW BRUNSWICK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
A MORE NORTHARD TRACK MAY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA.

END CAMPBELL