WOCN31 CWHX 310000 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT MONDAY 30 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR ATLANTIC CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL SYSTEMS HERMINE AND GASTON PASS THROUGH THE DISTRICT... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 N AND LONGITUDE 71.0 W... ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES OR 195 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. HERMINE IS MOVING NORTH AT 18 KNOTS...33 KM/H BUT SHOULD TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF GASTON ARE STILL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ARE LAGGING WELL BEHIND HERMINE WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. ACCORDINGLY..IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE REMAINS WILL PASS THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA SEPARATE FROM EACH OTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 30 9.00 PM 39.8N 71.0W 1002 40 74 AUG 31 9.00 AM 42.9N 67.7W 1004 35 65 AUG 31 9.00 PM 45.1N 64.0W 1005 30 55 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 9.00 AM 46.1N 59.1W 1006 30 55 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE MARITIMES FOR TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FOR WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF GASTON WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND HERMINE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WATERS SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE TRACK OF HERMINE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ..INTENDED FOR METEOROLOGISTS.. A. ANALYSIS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION..LLC..OF HERMINE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPOSED WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AND CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF BOUNDARY LAYER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD. ITS RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOTION HAS LONG SINCED OUTSTRIPPED THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT IS NEEDED TO KEEP THE STORM GOING. BUOY 44004 SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 70 KM EAST OF WHERE HERMINE TRACKED REPORTED NEAR 35 KT WINDS. WE BELIEVE THIS IS NEAR THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE STORM HENCE WE ARE DECREASING THE SURFACE WINDS TO 40 KTS WITH SOME LEEWAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE BUOY WAS NOT IN THE ABSOLUTE WINDIEST PART OF THE STORM. THE REMNANTS OF GASTON REMAIN IN-TACT AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER VIRGINIA. ITS MOTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM HERMINE....MUCH SLOWER AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. B. PROGNOSTIC THE RAPID MOTION OF HERMINE COULD BRING IT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE SOONER RESULTING IN IT VEERING MORE EASTWARD BEFORE HITTING THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SINCE IT IS SUCH A LOW LEVEL FEATURE AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS MORE PRUDENT TO FOLLOW IT ON THE 850MB PROGS WHICH TAKE IT THROUGH..RATHER THAN SOUTH..OF THE MARITIMES. IT QUICKLY BECOMES ENGULFED IN THE INCREASING BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN INDEPENDENT CIRCULATION BEYOND 36 HRS... IF THAT LONG. HERMINE HAS MOVED SUFFICIENTLY FAR AWAY FROM GASTON THAT WE ARE NO LONGER CONCERNED WITH FURTHER INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GASTON WILL MOVE BACK OUT OVER WATER OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE JUST BELOW 26 C. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOTION OF GASTON AS IT IS THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH OF THE RAINFALL. C. PUBLIC WEATHER HERMINE AND GASTON WILL LIKELY GIVE SEPARATE SHOTS OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA..THE MOST LIKELY TO BE RELATED TO GASTON. WE INTENTIONALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS MOVING INTO A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY THE RAINFALL WARNINGS ISSUED EARLIER REMAIN IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 KM/H ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY AS THE REMAINS OF HERMINE CROSS THE PROVINCE. D. MARINE WEATHER STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LURCHER..BROWNS BANK..SOUTHWESTERN SHORE..AND LAHAVE BANK. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 31/00Z 50 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END BOWYER/FOGARTY