WOCN32 CWHX 310600 TROPICAL STORM GASTON INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT TUESDAY 31 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ..TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 N AND LONGITUDE 75.1 W... ABOUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES OR 40 KM NORTHEAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB. GASTON IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 41 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 31 3.00 AM 38.1N 75.1W 1000 40 74 AUG 31 9.00 AM 39.3N 72.7W 998 45 83 AUG 31 3.00 PM 40.6N 70.2W 997 45 83 AUG 31 9.00 PM 41.8N 67.2W 998 45 83 SEP 01 3.00 AM 43.4N 63.7W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 9.00 AM 44.6N 59.9W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 3.00 PM 45.8N 55.8W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 9.00 PM 47.0N 51.5W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 02 3.00 AM 48.1N 46.8W 1000 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 02 9.00 AM 49.4N 42.9W 1002 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 02 3.00 PM 50.2N 39.6W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 02 9.00 PM 51.6N 36.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 03 3.00 AM 53.5N 34.1W 1005 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY AS GASTON TRACKS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL TUESDAY NIGHT..PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PROVINCE. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN POSTED FOR THE COMBINED RAINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE AND GASTON. HERMINE WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK TODAY AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW. SEE BULLETIN WOCN31 CWHX FOR DETAILS ON HERMINE. AS POST-TROPICAL GASTON TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TODAY FOR NEWFOUNDLAND DESCRIBING THE RAINFALLS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT OVER LAND. MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GASTON IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN MARINE WATERS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR GEORGES BANK.. WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE SABLE..EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE..SOUTHERN HALF OF BANQUEREAU AND LAURENTIAN FAN. GALES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST..SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EAST COAST AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ..INTENDED FOR METEOROLOGISTS.. A. ANALYSIS GASTON HAS SURVIVED ITS TRECK OVER LAND AND EMERGED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WATER. GASTON IS NOW OVER SSTS NEAR 25C. LAND-BASED RADAR SHOWS THAT GASTON HAS RETAINED AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL PATTERN WITH A CENTRE VOID OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN HAS FORMED TO THE NORTH OF GASTON MOVING TOWARD LONG ISLAND. THIS COULD BE A SIGN OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE RAINFALL PATTERN. WINDS AT THE CHESAPEAKE LIGHT C-MAN STATION REPORTED 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KNOTS AT 42 METRES ABOVE THE WATER. B. PROGNOSTIC GASTON IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER 24-25C WATER WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP GASTON GOING AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR ANOTHER 18-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MAY EVEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT ACCELERATES. THE GFS IS BEING USED AS A ROUGH GUIDE FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. C. PUBLIC WEATHER WITH A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH OF GASTON IN THE WAKE OF HERMINE..IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF GASTON. THIS WOULD PLACE NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE WETTEST SECTOR OF THE STORM. D. MARINE WEATHER TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL SUGGESTS 3-4 METRE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK. GASTON WILL BE MOVING TOO FAST FOR ENHANCED WAVE GROWTH TO OCCUR. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 31/06Z 30 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 40 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/18Z 40 90 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/00Z 40 90 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/06Z 40 90 30 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/12Z 40 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/18Z 50 120 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/00Z 50 120 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/06Z 40 100 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/12Z 40 100 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/18Z 30 80 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 30 80 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY