WOCN31 CWHX 311200 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT TUESDAY 31 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... REMNANTS OF HERMINE TO MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TODAY AS A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.5 N AND LONGITUDE 67.8 W... ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES OR 145 KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1012 MB. HERMINE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 38 KNOTS... 70 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 31 9.00 AM 43.5N 67.8W 1012 25 46 AUG 31 3.00 PM 46.3N 64.4W 1009 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 9.00 PM 49.0N 60.5W 1006 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 3.00 AM 51.6N 57.1W 1000 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 9.00 AM 53.8N 53.9W 997 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 3.00 PM 56.3N 51.4W 996 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 9.00 PM 59.5N 49.8W 995 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY AS THE REMAINS OF HERMINE CROSS NEW BRUNSWICK TODAY..HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE PROVINCE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF HERMINE MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS. UPWARDS OF 50 MM..2 INCHES..ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCAL DOWNPOURS. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND AND SOUTHERN LABRADOR LATER TODAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 KM/H ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WITH REGARD TO THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF HERMINE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MARITIMES WATERS WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER WESTERN MARITIMES WATERS TODAY WHEN HERMINE PASSES WELL TO THE WEST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLE AND THE BELLE ISLE BANK OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF HERMINE INTENSIFY. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE REGIONS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ...INTENDED FOR METEOROLOGISTS... A. ANALYSIS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW NEAR 1012 MB BASED ON SURFACE WEATHER STATIONS OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE. RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES A SWIRL OF RAIN ENCIRCLING THE SYSTEM. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN DETECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE RAIN REGION. B. PROGNOSTIC HERMINE WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY AND UNDERGO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. WE ANTICIPATE A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE INTO A GALE CENTRE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLE AREA AND INTO THE SOUTH LABRADOR SEA ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GEM..ETA AND GFS SEEM TO BE PROVIDING REASONABLE-LOOKING GUIDANCE FOR THIS POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. C. PUBLIC WEATHER OUR MAIN CONCERN WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE IS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OWING TO THE STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. A TROUGH EXTENDING EAST OF IT WILL ALSO BRING THE LIKLIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND. D. MARINE WEATHER GALES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER MARITIMES WATERS BUT GALES ARE NOW EXPECTED OVER THE BELLE ISLE BANK AND THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLE AS HERMINE REINTENSIFIES INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM. FORECASTERS..FOGARTY/BOWYER