WOCN31 CWHX 080600 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT WEDNESDAY 08 SEPTEMBER 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 4.00 PM ADT TODAY. ..REMNANTS OF FRANCES EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUÉBEC.. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 N AND LONGITUDE 84.2 W... ABOUT 25 NAUTICAL MILES OR 50 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA GEORGIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 999 MB. FRANCES IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 08 3.00 AM 34.1N 84.2W 999 25 46 SEP 08 3.00 PM 35.9N 83.3W 1002 25 46 SEP 09 3.00 AM 38.8N 81.0W 1004 25 46 POST-TROPICAL SEP 09 3.00 PM 43.0N 76.7W 1006 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 10 3.00 AM 46.8N 69.8W 1003 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 10 3.00 PM 51.0N 58.3W 1000 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 11 3.00 AM 54.1N 46.0W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TODAY THEN MOVE INTO THE TORONTO..OTTAWA..MONTRÉAL CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA..EASTERN ONTARIO FROM TRENTON TO OTTAWA AND AREAS EAST..AS WELL AS SOUTHERN QUÉBEC INCLUDING MONTRÉAL AND THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THESE AREAS COULD EASILY SEE 50 TO 80 MM..2 TO 3 INCHES..OF RAIN IN TOTAL. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INCLUDING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA..OTTAWA AND SOUTHWESTERN QUÉBEC INCLUDING THE GREATER MONTRÉAL REGION. WITH THESE RAINS..WHICH WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES..LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON THURSDAY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN QUÉBEC ON THURSDAY. GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 70 KM/H IN ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. INLAND GUSTS TO 50 KM/H WILL BE COMMON. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BLOW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 3 METRES..6 TO 10 FEET..ARE LIKELY OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS A. ANALYSIS RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES IS STARTING TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONTAL FEATURE FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE. THE MID-LATITUDE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF FRACES HAS STALLED AND IS BEGINNING TO HOOK UP WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND JUST OFFSHORE. FOLLY ISLAND SC WAS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE SETTING AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. FRANCES STILL HAS A RATHER LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. B. PROGNOSTIC NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUÉBEC AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE GASPÉ REGION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER THAN THE GEM REGIONAL AND HAS THE PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL IS BEING USED AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK AS WELL AS RAINFALL LOCATION/AMOUNTS. THE GEM GLOBAL IS BEING USED AS GUIDANCE FOR THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS MOVE THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. IT IS CLEARER NOW THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF FRANCES WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY AS IT MOVES INTO CANADA. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE QUASISTATIONARY NATURE OF THE FRONT BEING FED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FRANCES IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. THE USUALLY LARGE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OF THE 15 KM GEM MAY ACTUALLY BE REALISTIC IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. THE GEM SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 100 MM OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. D. MARINE WEATHER NONE. END FOGARTY