WOCN31 CWHX 081800 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 08 SEPTEMBER 2004. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON FRANCES FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE. ... RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 N AND LONGITUDE 82.6 W... ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES OR 185 KM NORTHEAST OF KNOXVILLE . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. FRANCES IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 08 3.00 PM 37.1N 82.6W 1002 25 46 SEP 09 3.00 AM 40.3N 80.2W 1004 25 46 POST-TROPICAL SEP 09 3.00 PM 43.8N 75.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 10 3.00 AM 46.7N 69.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 10 3.00 PM 49.6N 61.2W 1000 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 11 3.00 AM 51.3N 47.2W 996 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 11 3.00 PM 51.9N 34.5W 991 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN IS FORCAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE TORONTO.. OTTAWA..MONTRÉAL CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA..EASTERN ONTARIO FROM TRENTON TO OTTAWA AND AREAS EAST..AS WELL AS SOUTHERN QUÉBEC INCLUDING MONTRÉAL AND THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE 50 TO 80 MM OF RAIN IN TOTAL WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 100 MM POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INCLUDING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA..OTTAWA AND SOUTHWESTERN QUÉBEC INCLUDING THE GREATER MONTRÉAL REGION. WITH THESE RAINS..WHICH WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES..LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON THURSDAY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN QUÉBEC ON THURSDAY. GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 70 KM/H IN ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. INLAND GUSTS TO 50 KM/H WILL BE COMMON. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BLOW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 3 METRES..6 TO 10 FEET..ARE LIKELY OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS A. ANALYSIS DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER AS FRANCES CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF AND ELONGATION OF THE ISOBARS TO FORM A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONTAL SURFACE. NWP PROVIDES GOOD AND REASONABLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE AND FRANCES IS BEHAVING MORE LIKE A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THEREFORE NO FURTHER BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AND FORECASTING ISSSUES ARE TURNED OVER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTRES. B. PROGNOSTIC NEW RUN OF MODELS FOLLOWS FROM PREVIOUS SET. THE GEM/GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER MONTRÉAL IN 48 HOURS WHILE THE GFS SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH. PREVIOUS TRACK FROM CHC IS WITHIN THIS CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED VERY LITTLE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE GFS AND ETA PLACE THE AXIS OF MAX PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO THE CDN MODELS WHICH KEEP THE RAIN OVER THE VALLEY. PREFER CDN SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS PRECIP WITH TRACK OF FRANCES BUT MUCH MAY DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. BOTH GEM AND GFS INDICATE AMOUNTS NEAR 100 MM FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND/OR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN QUÉBEC. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE OF OPINION ABOUT WHERE THE PEAK RAINS WILL OCCUR... THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT UNREASONABLE ANYWHERE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. D. MARINE WEATHER NONE. END STEEVES