WOCN31 CWHX 261200
HURRICANE JEANNE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN 
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY
26 SEPTEMBER 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

 ...HURRICANE JEANNE MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA..REMNANTS EXPECTED
    TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
    AND WIND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.9 N AND LONGITUDE 81.5 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 74 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ORLANDO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS... 148 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 976
MB. JEANNE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 26  9.00 AM  27.9N  81.5W   976   80  148
SEP 26  9.00 PM  29.3N  82.8W   990   50   93
SEP 27  9.00 AM  31.1N  83.3W   994   40   74
SEP 27  9.00 PM  33.4N  82.2W   997   30   56
SEP 28  9.00 AM  35.7N  79.4W   999   25   46
SEP 28  9.00 PM  38.0N  75.2W   999   30   56
SEP 29  9.00 AM  40.1N  70.2W   997   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29  9.00 PM  41.9N  64.8W   995   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  9.00 AM  43.5N  59.3W   992   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  9.00 PM  45.0N  53.6W   989   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01  9.00 AM  46.2N  47.6W   987   50   93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JEANNE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE 
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON THURSDAY. GIVEN 
THAT JEANNE WILL HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM BY THAT
TIME..WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE STORM
TRACK OVER NOVA SCOTIA..PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND..SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK 
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WINDS WILL LIKELY BLOW FROM 
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS COLD AIR FLOWS INTO THE SYSTEM.

IT IS CERTAINLY TOO SOON TO BE DEFINITIVE ABOUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
WIND SPEEDS..BUT THIS TYPE OF POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL 
TO BRING 50 TO 100 MM OF RAIN. RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST INLAND 
THREAT FROM SUCH A STORM AS THE PREDICTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE 
HIGHEST WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

POST-TROPICAL STORM JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE MARITIMES 
MARINE DISTRICT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL 
LIKELY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON THURSDAY
AND COULD BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE MARITIMES AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICTS AT THAT TIME.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

HURRICANE JEANNE STRUCK THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY THREE 
STORM AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS FILLING IN AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW 
WEAKENING OVER LAND.

B. PROGNOSTIC

JEANNE WILL UNDERGO SHARP RECURVATURE ON MONDAY AND MOVE TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A RIDGE WEST OF BERMUDA AND AHEAD 
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A TIGHT 
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AHEAD AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
JEANNE EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A MARKED SHIFT IN RAINFALL TO THE NORTH 
SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE 
TRACK OF THE REMNANT SYSTEM. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGNOSTICS FROM 
SOME GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JEANNE WILL BE UNDERGOING 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT EXITS THE DELMARVA REGION LATE 
TUESDAY.  TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THE TIME THE STORM MOVES 
INTO CANADIAN WATERS AND WILL BEHAVE LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

THE PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GEM GLB SHOWS A 
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS LIKELY 
TO BE STRONG WARM FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF POST-TROPICAL STORM JEANNE 
AND THIS COULD INTRODUCE GUSTY NORTHEAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS 
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY.

D. MARINE WEATHER

THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK AND GALE TO STORM FORCE SOUTHERLIES SOUTH 
OF IT. MODERATE DEEPENING OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES 
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES 
OF SYSTEMS.

END FOGARTY/BOWYER