WOCN31 CWHX 271200
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
MONDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

 ... JEANNE MAY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MARITIMES...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.0 N AND LONGITUDE 83.4 W... ABOUT 10 NAUTICAL MILES OR 25 KM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 985 MB.
JEANNE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 27  9.00 AM  31.0N  83.4W   985   40   74
SEP 27  9.00 PM  33.0N  82.9W   993   35   65
SEP 28  9.00 AM  34.9N  81.3W   998   30   56
SEP 28  9.00 PM  36.7N  77.4W  1002   30   56
SEP 29  9.00 AM  37.2N  73.6W  1001   35   65
SEP 29  9.00 PM  37.4N  70.2W  1001   35   65
SEP 30  9.00 AM  37.4N  67.2W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  9.00 PM  37.1N  65.1W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01  9.00 AM  36.8N  63.6W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01  9.00 PM  36.4N  62.5W  1012   20   37 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02  9.00 AM  35.5N  61.6W  1012   20   37 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE US EAST COAST
AHEAD OF JEANNE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FED TROPICAL MOISTURE BY JEANNE SO SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER 
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH JEANNE IS NOW EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA IN LIGHT OF OUR LATEST FORECAST 
TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE STORM SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

ONLY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED WITH GALES
FROM JEANNE GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK... BUT WE BELIEVE THE 
THREAT TO BE FAIRLY LOW NOW.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
JEANNE STILL TRACKING SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH OVER GEORGIA.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE GFS STILL DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE COAST WHICH MOVES SOUTH OF NS...
THE ETA DOES NOT EVEN DEVELOP A LOW... THE CDN GLOBAL DEVELOPS A LOW 
FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN POINT REGARDING JEANNE NOW IS THAT THE SUITE 
OF MODELS ALL KEEP JEANNE FARTHER SOUTH SO WE ARE NO LONGER 
FORECASTING IT TO BRING GALES INTO SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS.

OUR LATEST TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A LARGE SHIFT HOWEVER WE 
STARTED HINTING AT THIS TREND YESTERDAY AND NOW HAVE THE CONFIDENCE 
TO GO WITH THIS TRACK OFFICIALLY. NHC HAS ALSO MADE A SIGNIFICANT 
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH IN THEIR TRACK. IT APPEARS THAT THE APPROACHING 
WESTERLY STREAM WILL NOT PICK UP THE LLCC AND IT WILL GET ORPHANED. 
MEANWHILE THE MOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS WILL FEED AHEAD INTO THE 
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT PROVIDING STRONGER INGREDIENTS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE FORMING ANYWAY. THIS REALLY SOUNDS A LOT LIKE WHAT 
HAPPENED WITH IVAN.

JEANNE ALREADY DID ONE COMPLETE LOOP IN ITS LIFE SO FAR AND WE MAY
BE LOOKING AT THE SETUP FOR ANOTHER ONE IN THE COMING DAYS OR WEEK.


C. PUBLIC WEATHER
IT IS REALLY ONLY THE PRE-JEANNE RAIN NOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO HIT
THE MARITIMES.

D. MARINE WEATHER
NONE.


END BOWYER