WOCN31 CWHX 271800
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
MONDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

 ... RAIN AHEAD OF JEANNE TO PUSH INTO NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.1 N AND LONGITUDE 83.8 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 150 KM NORTH NORTHWEST OF VALDOSTA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS... 56 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
1009 MB. JEANNE IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 27  3.00 PM  32.1N  83.8W  1009   30   56
SEP 28  3.00 AM  33.8N  82.5W  1009   30   56
SEP 28  3.00 PM  35.4N  80.0W  1000   30   56
SEP 29  3.00 AM  37.0N  75.5W  1009   30   56
SEP 29  3.00 PM  37.3N  71.9W  1009   30   56
SEP 30  3.00 AM  37.4N  68.7W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  3.00 PM  37.3N  66.4W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01  3.00 AM  37.3N  64.4W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01  3.00 PM  37.2N  62.5W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02  3.00 AM  37.0N  60.6W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02  3.00 PM  36.8N  58.6W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAIN WELL AHEAD OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON 
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WHICH IS INDEPENDENT OF JEANNE... HOWEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 
JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM MAKING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS 
TIME BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE.

SINCE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA
NO INLAND WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
JEANNE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AND
ONLY BE AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH EVEN AT THAT. ACCORDINGLY 
GALES ARE NO LONGER FORECAST FOR MARITIME WATERS WITH JEANNE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ... INTENDED FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

A. ANALYSIS
WE INITIALIZE JEANNE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIVEN THAT MARGINAL 
GALES WERE RATHER SPOTTY AT NOON AS PER THE NHC BULLETIN.

B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THE MODELS. THERE IS
A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS... ALL SHOWING JEANNE REMAINING 
WELL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADIAN WATERS. JEANNE SHOULD BEGIN CURVING 
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE WAKEFIELD VIRGINIA IS SHOWING RAINFALL OFF THE COAST AS HAS BEEN 
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS 
NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.

AS WAS THE CASE WITH TROPICAL STORM GASTON IN EARLY SEPTEMBER WE 
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAIN PATTERN WITH
A FINE LINE BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND NO RAIN. IN THE CASE OF GASTON
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SIMILAR FORECAST 
CHALLENGE EXISTS WITH THIS RAIN FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

D. MARINE WEATHER
NONE.

END BOWYER