WOCN31 CWHX 290000
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT 
TUESDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

 ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE TURNING MORE EASTWARD...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.3 N AND LONGITUDE 75.1 W... ABOUT 25 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 45 KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS... 56 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 999 MB. JEANNE IS MOVING EAST AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 28  9.00 PM  39.3N  75.5W   999   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29  9.00 AM  39.8N  70.5W  1000   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29  9.00 PM  40.2N  66.6W  1000   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  9.00 AM  40.5N  64.0W  1000   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  9.00 PM  40.7N  62.0W  1000   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01  9.00 AM  40.9N  60.1W  1000   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01  9.00 PM  41.1N  58.6W  1002   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02  9.00 AM  41.5N  57.3W  1002   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 02  9.00 PM  42.0N  56.2W  1002   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  9.00 AM  42.4N  55.1W  1002   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  9.00 PM  42.9N  54.5W  1002   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER 
STATEMENT TO SPOTLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN NOVA SCOTIA 
DUE TO JEANNE. SOUTHERNMOST REGIONS WILL SEE 25 TO 35 MM BUT LOCALLY 
HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STRONG WINDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS ON WEDNESDAY... WITH STRONG 
TO GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE OUTLOOK DAY THURSDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ... INTENDED FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT JEANNE TURNED MORE
EASTWARD BETWEEN 20-21Z... WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE STILL NEAR 999MB 
AND A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 25 KNOTS. JEANNE HAS BEEN LOOKING 
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC DURING THE DAY AND THE US HPC DECLARED IT
AS EXTRATROPICAL AT 21Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN 
EARLIER SO WE INITIALIZE IT AS 30 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
IF JEANNE HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WE SHOULD START TO SEE IT SLOW 
DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION WITH RESPECT TO THE FLOW AS IT BECOMES MORE
A PART OF THE FLOW AND MOVES WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE RATHER 
THAN JUST WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS IS PART OF OUR THINKING FOR NOT
CONTINUING THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION FOR TOO MUCH LONGER... BUT WITH 
ALL THINGS ET THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT CALL.

OTHERWISE WE CLING TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE MODELS
AND HAVE ADOPTED THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE 
REMNANTS OF JEANNE AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA LONGER.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING NEW FROM EARLIER... STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN JUST
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA... HENCE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BY THE 
ASPC COMMENTING ON THE THREAT FOR SOUTHERN EXTREMETIES.

D. MARINE WEATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS AND 
POSSIBLY GALES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GALES ARE EXTENDED NORTH OF 
THE TRACK BECAUSE OF THE DEVELOPING GRADIENT AND NOT IN THE 
TRADITIONAL RIGHT-OF-TRACK LOCATION.

END BOWYER/SAULNIER