WOCN31 CWHX 291800 POST-TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 29 SEPTEMBER 2004. THIS IS THE LAST PLANNED STATEMENT FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM JEANNE. PLEASE MONITOR FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE. ... WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING COMPLEX WITH POST-TROPICAL JEANNE... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 N AND LONGITUDE 70.0 W... ABOUT 180 NAUTICAL MILES OR 335 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 999 MB. JEANNE IS MOVING EAST AT 19 KNOTS... 35 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 29 3.00 PM 38.2N 70.0W 999 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 AM 38.6N 65.1W 1000 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 PM 39.2N 61.1W 1000 35 65 POST-TROPICAL OCT 01 3.00 AM 39.5N 57.5W 1001 35 65 POST-TROPICAL OCT 01 3.00 PM 39.9N 53.8W 1004 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL JEANNE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADVISING THAT THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT... DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS ARE BEING EXTENDED TO MOST SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS AS A COMPLEX PRESSURE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL JEANNE. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ... INTENDED FOR METEOROLOGISTS A. ANALYSIS UPPER COMMA CLOUD PULLING AWAY FROM LLCC... WHICH FROM SATELLITE HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD NEAR OR SOUTH OF 38N AT AROUND 25-30 KTS. GALES THAT ARE OCCURING AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING COMPLICATED TO DESCRIBE BECAUSE OF THE BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT THAT WE BELIEVE IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT. THE CANADIAN MODELS INITIALIZED THE LOW BROADLY IN THE RIGHT PLACE. B. PROGNOSTIC THIS GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AND REFLECTS A VERY DIFFERENT LINE OF THINKING WITHIN THE CENTRE. WE HAVE KNOWN FOR A FEW DAYS THAT THE MODELS WERE PICKING UP DETAILS OF A COUPLE OF FEATURES THAT WOULD BE AFFECTING ATLANTIC CANADA. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE AS IF THE REMNANT POST TROPICAL CENTRE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALMOST DUE EAST... WELL TO THE SOUTH... WHILE A BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TRACKS THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WATERS. FSU CYCLONE PHASE OUTPUT FOR MOST MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM AS ALREADY ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE. HOWEVER THE GEM REGIONAL AND GLOBAL AND GFS PROGS ALL SHOW A SEPARATE WARM POOL STRUCTURE WELL REMOVED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTRE WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE DISTRICT. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE GEM REGIONAL WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGE JUMP OF THE CENTRE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GEM 12HR LOW IS LIKELY STILL MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LLCC... WHEREAS THE 24HR SFC PANEL HIGHLIGHTS THE NEW BAROCLINIC LOW WITH THE LLCC CENTRE INFERRED FROM THE WARM POOL TO IT SOUTH. WE TRACK THIS LLCC OUT TO 48 HRS WHERE WE INSINUATE THAT IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LARGER FLOW. THE 850 MB WINDS ON THE REGIONAL MODEL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON DAY TWO... HENCE THE SLOWER MOTION. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IS BASING ITS FORECASTS ON THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SINCE THIS IS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF CONCERN. WE ARE TRACKING THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF JEANNE HERE AS A MATTER OF CONTINUITY FOR ONE LAST TIME. ACCORDINGLY THIS WILL BE THE LAST PLANNED MESSAGE BY THE CHC ON POST TROPICAL JEANNE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 29/18Z 180 180 180 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 150 150 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 120 120 120 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/06Z 90 90 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 THE RADII GIVEN SHOULD BE INTERPRETTED AS A DIMINISHING IMPORTANCE OF THE GALES WITH PT JEANNE AS THE BAROCLINIC LOW BECOMES THE GREATER FEATURE. END BOWYER