WOCN31 CWHX 110600
SUB TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
MONDAY 11 OCTOBER 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

 ... SUB TROPICAL STROM NICOLE LEAVES BERMUDA ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 64.2 W... ABOUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES OR 165 KM 
NORTH NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB.
NICOLE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 41 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 11  3.00 AM  33.8N  64.2W   994   40   74
OCT 11  3.00 PM  37.5N  61.3W   990   45   83
OCT 12  3.00 AM  41.7N  61.0W   983   55  102
OCT 12  3.00 PM  43.5N  65.5W   981   55  102

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
.. THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
WIND WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND..
ĪLES DE LA MADELEINE AND ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK EXCEPT FOR EXTREME 
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. WRECKHOUSE WIND WARNING POSTED OVER 
SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
FOR MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT..STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN SHORE..SABLE..EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE.. FOURCHU..BANQUEREAU..
LAURENTIAN FAN..CABOT STRAIT.. NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT..
GULF-MAGDALEN..AND CHALEUR MISCOU. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OTHER MARITIME MARINE AREAS. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE
DISTRICT..A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND 
SOUTHWEST COAST.  GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING 
NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS EXCEPT THE BELLE ISLE BANK.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND ROUGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT 
ALONG THE NORTH SHORES OF PEI AND THE GULF COASTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK 
ESPECIALLY BUCTOUCHE AND NORTHWARD TO THE ACADIAN PENINSULA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH NICOLE BECOMING CLEARER ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.  CONVECTION NOTED IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF LOW.

B. PROGNOSTIC
QUIKSCAT PLOT AT 00Z SHOWED CIRCULATION CENTRE ASSOCIATED WITH NICOLE 
AND DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW JUST OFF THE WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE 
AREA. PRESSURE RISING OVER LABRADOR AS COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD 
TOWARD LOW.  UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES EASTWARD TODAY
AND THEN INTENSIFIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL
AIR FROM NICOLE AND COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH ENERGETICALLY
SUPPORT AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTRE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERNMOST
TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER..
MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR HANDLING OF NICOLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNTIL THE TIME IT IS CAPTURED BY BAROCLINIC LOW.  FOR THIS BULLETIN..
WE PREFER THE HANDLING OF NICOLE BY THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GEM..
GFDL AND NHC STATISTICAL MODELS.  THIS AGREES WITH
OUR IDEA WHEREBY NICOLE CONTINUES ON NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF BEFORE ITS CAPTURE BY MAJOR BAROCLINIC LOW
ON TUESDAY. WE NOTE THAT LATEST RUN OF GLOBAL IS NOW MUCH TOO
FAST WITH HANDLING OF NICOLE AND CAN NOT RESOLVE THE 2 CENTRES BY
00Z TUESDAY. ETA SEEMS TO BE BETTER AT HANDLING THE DETAIL
BUT NICOLE IS CAPTURED BY LOW TOO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
WE DO NOT CHANGE SIGNICANTLY OUR FORECAST PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS
AND WIND VALUES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
11/06Z  120 120  90  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
11/18Z  140 140 140 140     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
12/06Z  180 170 170 180    90  60  20  40     0   0   0   0
12/18Z  210 175 190 215    90  60  20  40     0   0   0   0

END CAMPBELL