WOCN31 CWHX 111800 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT MONDAY 11 OCTOBER 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT TROPICAL STORM NICOLE CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHWARD. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 N AND LONGITUDE 61.1 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 580 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB. NICOLE IS MOVING NORTH AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 11 3.00 PM 36.7N 61.1W 1000 45 83 OCT 12 3.00 AM 40.2N 62.2W 1002 40 74 OCT 12 3.00 PM 41.5N 62.7W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL OCT 13 3.00 AM 42.9N 62.3W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL OCT 13 3.00 PM 44.7N 61.3W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL OCT 14 3.00 AM 47.1N 60.3W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND ... ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WIND WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.. ĪLES DE LA MADELEINE AND ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. WRECKHOUSE WIND WARNING POSTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY FOR MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT..STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN SHORE..SABLE..EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE.. FOURCHU..BANQUEREAU.. LAURENTIAN FAN..CABOT STRAIT.. NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT.. GULF-MAGDALEN..AND CHALEUR MISCOU. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARITIME MARINE AREAS. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT..A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHWEST COAST. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS EXCEPT THE BELLE ISLE BANK. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND ROUGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORES OF PEI AND THE GULF COASTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK ESPECIALLY BUCTOUCHE AND NORTHWARD TO THE ACADIAN PENINSULA. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS HARD TO FIND ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. B. PROGNOSTIC INITIALY THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER... BUT THE 12 TO 36 HRS PROGS SHOW A CONCENSUS ON AN INTENSE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA... WHICH MAY BE THE REMNANT OF NICOLE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AND AS A TRANSITIONING TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN REFERENCE TO THE 500 MB FLOW THE PRESENT TRACK IS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO NHC TRACK WHICH WE PREFER TO FOLLOW AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE IMPACT OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVING ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT IS TOO IMPORTANT TO IGNORE...WE PREFER TO TRACK IT AS A WEAKENING ENTITY UNTIL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST VANISHES. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION PERIOD AND WIND SPEED IS SLOWER THAN PREDICTED EARLIER... BUT THE WARNINGS ARE MAINTAINED FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 11/18Z 130 130 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12/06Z 130 130 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12/18Z 130 130 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13/06Z 130 130 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13/18Z 130 130 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14/06Z 130 130 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/ ROUSSEL