WOCN31 CWHX 120000 CCA
POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
MONDAY 11 OCTOBER 2004.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MIDNIGHT ADT

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL PRESSURE.

 ... POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 42.2 N AND LONGITUDE 62.2 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 260 KM SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 982
MB. NICOLE IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 11  9.00 PM  42.2N  62.2W   982   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 12  3.00 AM  42.8N  63.5W   980   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 12  9.00 AM  43.4N  64.8W   980   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND... MOST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
WIND WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND MOST OF
NEW BRUNSWICK. WRECKHOUSE WIND WARNING POSTED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN POSE A THREAT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WHILE
THE TREES STILL HAVE MOST OF THEIR LEAVES AND THERE IS A RISK
OF FALLING TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARITIMES AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS EXCEPT THE BELLE ISLE BANK
OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND ROUGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT 
ALONG THE NORTH SHORES OF PEI AND THE GULF COASTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK 
ESPECIALLY BUCTOUCHE AND NORTHWARD TO THE ACADIAN PENINSULA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS ESIMATED BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY/SHIP DATA. BUOY 44137 WIND DIRECTION 
SHIFTED FROM 360 DEGREES TO 070 DEGREES AT 2200Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND NICOLE AS WELL
AS COOLER AIR CIRCULATING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THIS SUGGEST 
NICOLE IS GOING THROUGH OR HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH TRANSITION
INTO A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM.


B. PROGNOSTIC

IT APPEARS THAT NICOLE IS BEING ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LOW
AND BECOMING A LARGE INTENSE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. MOST COMPUTER 
GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND BRING THIS LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS IDEA.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
12/00Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
12/06Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
12/12Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END SZETO