WOCN31 CWHX 120300
POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT MIDNIGHT ADT 
TUESDAY 12 OCTOBER 2004.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST INFORMATION STATEMENT ON POST-TROPICAL
STORM NICOLE.

 ... POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT MIDNIGHT ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 43.1 N AND LONGITUDE 64.0 W... ABOUT 95 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 175 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980
MB. NICOLE IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 12  MDNT     43.1N  64.0W   980   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 12  3.00 AM  43.5N  64.8W   978   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 12  9.00 AM  44.0N  64.2W   976   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS OCCURRING OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING AS THE MOISTURE
FROM POST TROPICAL STORM NICOLE GOT ABSORBED BY A LARGE
MID LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...
MOST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND AND MOST OF NEW BRUNSWICK. WRECKHOUSE WIND WARNING
CONTINUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN POSE A THREAT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WHILE
THE TREES STILL HAVE MOST OF THEIR LEAVES AND THERE IS A RISK
OF FALLING TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARITIMES AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS EXCEPT THE BELLE ISLE BANK
OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND ROUGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT 
ALONG THE NORTH SHORES OF PEI AND THE GULF COASTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK 
ESPECIALLY BUCTOUCHE AND NORTHWARD TO THE ACADIAN PENINSULA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS ESIMATED BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY DATA. THE WIND DIRECTION AT BUOY 44142
WAS 010 DEGREES AT 2300Z AND 300 DEGREES AT 0200Z. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE CENTRE IS PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE BUOY. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE COMMA SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WITH DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. COLD AIR
IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE DATA.
NICOLE IS NOW A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE MOISTURE FROM NICOLE IS ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LOW
AND THE RESULT IS A LARGE MID LATITUTE CYCLONE HEADING TOWARDS 
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA. LATEST CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND THIS LATEST FORECAST
TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS ITS SOLUTION. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
12/03Z  420 240 240 360     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
12/06Z  420 240 240 360     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
12/12Z  450 240 240 400     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END SZETO