WOCN31 CWHX 281200 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY 28 JULY 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 N AND LONGITUDE 69.0 W... ABOUT 340 NAUTICAL MILES OR 630 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 999 MB. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 8 KNOTS...15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH JUL 28 9.00 AM 35.9N 69.0W 999 45 83 JUL 28 9.00 PM 37.7N 67.1W 997 55 102 JUL 29 9.00 AM 39.5N 64.0W 996 55 102 JUL 29 9.00 PM 41.9N 59.9W 999 45 83 JUL 30 9.00 AM 44.0N 55.5W 1001 40 74 JUL 30 9.00 PM 45.9N 50.9W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 31 9.00 AM 47.9N 45.9W 1003 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON SATURDAY PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE REMNANTS OF FRANKLIN PASS TO THE SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG EASTERLIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE BY LATE FRIDAY. THOSE GALES MAY SPREAD INTO LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE GRAND BANKS ON SATURDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY SKEWED WIND FIELD WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONFINED ALMOST COMPLETELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. IMAGERY FROM THE AMSRE INSTRUMENT ABOARD THE AQUA-1 SATELLITE NEAR 06Z INDICATED THAT THERE WAS STILL A SOUTHWARD BIAS IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. B. PROGNOSTIC THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD. A NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEAST MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT..AND INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS..HOWEVER.. SOME DESCREPENCY AMONG MODELS AS TO THE FORWARD SPEED OF FRANKLIN. FOR THIS PACKAGE..THE TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED. NEW NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFDL AND OUR EXPERIMENTAL MODEL INDICATE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES OVER SSTS OF 26C OR MORE. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR TENDENCY PRODUCT. BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS..FRANKLIN WILL MOVE ALONG OR CLOSE TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN SST..SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANKLIN MAY NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TILL BEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER..THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS GIVEN INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ANTICIPATED DURING THAT PERIOD. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE (CPS) ANALYSIS FROM THE GFDL INDICATE THE COMMENCEMENT OF ET AROUND 30/00Z AND COMPLETION AROUND 30/18Z AND THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH FRANKLIN MOVING ALONG THE SST GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE POST TROPICAL (I.E. EXTRATROPICAL) OVER THE GRAND BANKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. C. PUBLIC WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD OF ET..THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FRANKLIN MAY MERGE WITH A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD BRING RAIN TO THE AVALON ON SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND DETAILS ON THIS AS THE TIME DRAWS NEAR. D. MARINE WEATHER THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH FRANKLIN WILL BE HIGHLY-SKEWED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE MUCH TIGHTER ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM UP AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUR TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES WAVE GROWTH TO NOT MORE THAN 7 METERS. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MARINE DISTRICT. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 28/12Z 90 110 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29/00Z 120 150 120 40 30 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 29/12Z 120 150 120 40 30 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 90 130 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 70 100 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/00Z 30 45 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY/MILLER