WOCN31 CWHX 291800
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 29 JULY 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

 ...FRANKLIN NOW MOVING SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 42.0 N AND LONGITUDE 60.4 W... ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 215 KM SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 997 MB. FRANKLIN IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 43
KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUL 29  3.00 PM  41.8N  60.8W   997   50   93
JUL 29  9.00 PM  43.0N  58.1W  1000   45   83
JUL 30  3.00 AM  44.0N  55.6W  1002   40   74
JUL 30  9.00 AM  44.9N  52.8W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30  3.00 PM  45.9N  50.0W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30  9.00 PM  47.0N  47.0W  1009   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 31  3.00 AM  48.0N  44.0W  1012   25   46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

MOISTURE FROM FRANKLIN WILL AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS EVENING 
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 15 TO 25 MM OF RAIN ARE 
FORECAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 50 MM POSSIBLE IN EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSHOWERS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT. STORM FORCE WINDS 
MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE. 
STORM FORCE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
LAURENTIAN FAN. GALES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS AS FRANKLIN 
WEAKENS ON SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

FRANKLIN STILL LOOKS QUITE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTRE. QUICKSCAT WINDS
SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 50 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE SO WE KEEP
THAT AS OUR INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CENTRE OF FRANKLIN HAS NOW ENTERED 
CANADIAN MARINE AREAS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NUMERICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THAT THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION FOR FRANKLIN IS IMMINENT. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE
MOVED UP OUR FORECAST OF FRANKLIN BECOMING POST TROPICAL TO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AND SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS ON SATURDAY.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

GEM REGIONAL QPF SHOWS TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER 
NEWFOUNDLAND AT 12Z SATURDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE FROM 
FRANKLIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE AVALON.

D. MARINE WEATHER

MOST OF THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER BUOY 44137
WHICH IS NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK NOW INDICATES SEAS GREATER THAN 4M.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
29/18Z   70 120 100  40    30  40  20   0     0   0   0   0
30/00Z   70 120 100  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/06Z   50 100  90  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/12Z   40 100  90  20     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/18Z   50  90  60  20     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
31/00Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
31/06Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MILLER