WOCN31 CWHX 140600 TROPICAL STORM IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 14 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN..BUT TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 N AND LONGITUDE 70.0 W... ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES OR 495 KM WEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS...19 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 14 3.00 AM 32.4N 70.0W 997 60 111 AUG 14 3.00 PM 34.4N 69.7W 995 65 120 AUG 15 3.00 AM 36.2N 68.3W 993 70 130 AUG 15 3.00 PM 37.5N 65.5W 988 75 139 AUG 16 3.00 AM 38.2N 62.2W 987 75 139 AUG 16 3.00 PM 39.1N 58.9W 990 70 130 AUG 17 3.00 AM 40.4N 55.3W 992 65 120 AUG 17 3.00 PM 43.1N 51.1W 993 60 111 AUG 18 3.00 AM 48.0N 46.7W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.00 PM 53.3N 42.7W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 19 3.00 AM 59.3N 40.3W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES. AN UNRELATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN..HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY IRENE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY MIDWEEK THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM IRENE COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A DISTURBANCE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS FORECAST TO PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT OTHER THAN SOME SEA SWELL APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS AN SSMI PASS LAST EVENING REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS BECOME PERISTENT OVER THE LLC AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED. THIS POINTS TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION AND IRENE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH NOW. UNFORTUNATELY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT OVERPASS MISSED THE STORM SO WE ADOPT WIND RADII FROM NHC FOR THE INITIAL WIND FIELD. B. PROGNOSTIC GIVEN THE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL JETSTREAM FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AN EASTWARD HEADING ON MONDAY AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD..ON WEDNESDAY..A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE REMNANTS OF IRENE TO CURL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS THINKING IS REFLECTED IN OUR LATEST FORECAST TRACK WHICH BRINGS IRENE OVER THE OUTER GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EXTRATROPICALLY-TRANSITIONING STORM. IRENE WILL MOVE INTO LOWER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE..THIS IS INDICATED BY LOWER MSLP AND LEVELLING-OFF OF THE MSW ON THURSDAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER DEPENDING ON THE PHASING OF THE DIGGING TROUGH AND IRENE..THERE COULD BE SOME STORM-FED MOISTURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 14/06Z 90 75 60 60 30 30 20 20 0 0 0 0 14/18Z 90 75 60 60 30 30 20 20 15 15 15 0 15/06Z 100 85 70 60 40 40 30 20 25 25 20 15 15/18Z 130 110 90 70 60 70 40 30 35 35 25 20 16/06Z 130 120 100 70 60 70 40 30 35 40 25 20 16/18Z 130 120 100 60 60 70 40 30 30 30 20 15 17/06Z 130 140 100 60 60 80 40 30 25 25 20 15 17/18Z 130 160 110 60 60 80 50 30 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 140 180 120 80 50 65 40 25 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 160 180 110 90 50 60 40 25 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 160 180 110 90 45 50 30 25 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY