WOCN31 CWHX 141200 TROPICAL STORM IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 14 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN..BUT TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 N AND LONGITUDE 70.1 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 510 KM WEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 14 9.00 AM 33.0N 70.1W 998 60 111 AUG 14 9.00 PM 35.0N 69.6W 994 70 130 AUG 15 9.00 AM 36.9N 66.9W 991 75 139 AUG 15 9.00 PM 37.9N 63.9W 989 75 139 AUG 16 9.00 AM 38.7N 60.5W 988 70 130 AUG 16 9.00 PM 39.8N 57.1W 992 70 130 AUG 17 9.00 AM 41.8N 53.2W 993 65 120 AUG 17 9.00 PM 45.5N 48.9W 991 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 9.00 AM 50.6N 44.7W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 9.00 PM 56.3N 41.5W 989 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES. AN UNRELATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN..HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY IRENE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY MIDWEEK THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM IRENE COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A DISTURBANCE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS FORECAST TO PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT OTHER THAN SOME SEA SWELL APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUES OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH RECON INDICATED SLIGHT WEAKENING..THIS TREND MAY BE SHORTLIVED. IRENE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 27C. B. PROGNOSTIC GIVEN THE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL JETSTREAM FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AN EASTWARD HEADING ON MONDAY AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD..ON WEDNESDAY..A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL CAUSE IRENE TO CURL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS THINKING IS REFLECTED IN OUR LATEST FORECAST TRACK WHICH BRINGS IRENE OVER THE OUTER GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EXTRATROPICALLY-TRANSITIONING STORM. WE EXPECT IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER 28 TO 29C WATER. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES. THE CHIPS MODEL AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRENGTHENING TO 75 KNOTS AND GFDL SUGGESTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE WILL GO WITH INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS BY 16/00Z. IRENE WILL MOVE INTO LOWER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE..THIS IS INDICATED BY LOWER MSLP AND LEVELLING-OFF OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THURSDAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER DEPENDING ON THE PHASING OF THE DIGGING TROUGH AND IRENE..THERE COULD BE SOME STORM-FED MOISTURE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 14/12Z 90 75 60 60 30 30 20 20 0 0 0 0 15/00Z 95 80 65 60 35 35 25 20 20 20 15 5 15/12Z 115 95 80 65 50 55 35 25 30 30 20 15 16/00Z 130 115 95 70 60 70 40 30 35 35 25 20 16/12Z 130 120 100 65 60 70 40 30 30 35 20 15 17/00Z 130 130 100 60 60 75 40 30 25 25 20 15 17/12Z 130 150 105 60 60 80 45 30 10 10 10 5 18/00Z 135 170 115 70 55 70 45 25 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 150 180 115 85 50 60 40 25 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 160 180 110 90 45 55 35 25 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/LAFORTUNE