WOCN31 CWHX 150000 TROPICAL STORM IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY 14 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...IRENE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT...TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 N AND LONGITUDE 69.1 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 505 KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 992 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 14 9.00 PM 35.1N 69.1W 992 60 111 AUG 15 9.00 AM 37.0N 67.0W 988 65 120 AUG 15 9.00 PM 38.4N 64.2W 988 65 120 AUG 16 9.00 AM 39.6N 60.8W 990 60 111 AUG 16 9.00 PM 40.8N 57.2W 992 60 111 AUG 17 9.00 AM 42.7N 53.0W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING AUG 17 9.00 PM 46.0N 47.8W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 9.00 AM 51.0N 41.5W 988 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 9.00 PM 56.0N 37.5W 982 55 102 BECOMING ABSORBED AUG 19 9.00 AM 59.0N 37.5W 980 55 102 ABSORBED 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES. THE RAIN THOSE REGIONS WILL EXPERIENCE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DUE TO A FRONTAL TROUGH UNRELATED TO IRENE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MOISTURE NORTH OF IRENE MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH LATER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT MAY RESULT FROM THAT INTERACTION WILL MOSTLY OCCUR OFFSHORE. SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BY MOISTURE NORTH OF IRENE LATE ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY..HOWEVER THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY REACH NEWFOUNDLAND..IF ANY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT TRACK IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO CANADIAN WATERS THAN THE TRACK WE WERE ADVERTISING EARLIER TODAY. AS A RESULT MARGINAL GALES COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK AND WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE LATE ON MONDAY..AND CONSEQUENTLY GALE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. GALE WARNINGS MAY LATER BE REQUIRED FOR THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN MARINE AREAS AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GRAND BANKS. SWELL AHEAD OF IRENE IS ALSO LIKELY TO AFFECT MARITIME WATERS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS IRENE IS LOOKING WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING WITH BANDING FEATURES..A SYMMETRIC CDO..GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.. AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. RECON DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT IRENE IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH..AND WE CONSEQUENTLY GO WITH 60 KNOTS AS AN INITIAL INTENSITY. IRENE IS STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF RECURVATURE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. B. PROGNOSTIC IRENE HAS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH RELATIVELY LOW STORM-RELATIVE WIND SHEAR AND THE CENTRE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF STREAM AXIS WHERE SSTS ARE AS WARM AS 29C. CONSEQUENTLY..IRENE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT. LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE..MOST NOTABLY THE CHIPS MODEL.. SHOWS IRENE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH..WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS..UNTIL VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE GFDL AND OUR EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE MODEL INDICATE POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE INTENSITY OF IRENE. SOMETIME ON TUESDAY IRENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THAT TIME. DUE TO THIS INTERACTION THE TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IRENE ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. LATER IN THE WEEK POST-TROPICAL STORM IRENE WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AND WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE FRONTAL TROUGH BRINGING RAIN TO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD BEFORE MOISTURE NORTH OF IRENE BEGINS FEEDING INTO IT MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT..HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/00Z 95 80 65 60 35 35 25 20 0 0 0 0 15/12Z 110 95 75 60 45 50 30 20 25 25 15 10 16/00Z 125 110 90 65 55 65 35 25 15 15 10 5 16/12Z 130 120 95 60 60 70 40 30 0 0 0 0 17/00Z 130 130 100 60 60 70 40 30 0 0 0 0 17/12Z 130 150 105 60 55 75 40 25 0 0 0 0 18/00Z 135 165 110 70 50 70 40 25 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 145 175 110 80 45 60 35 25 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 160 180 110 90 45 55 35 25 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 170 180 110 100 45 55 35 25 0 0 0 0 END/LAFORTUNE/FOGARTY