WOCN31 CWHX 150600 HURRICANE IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...HURRICANE IRENE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF MARITIME WATERS.. FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUTER GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY.. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 N AND LONGITUDE 68.7 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 515 KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 15 3.00 AM 35.6N 68.7W 989 70 130 AUG 15 3.00 PM 36.8N 66.5W 988 75 139 AUG 16 3.00 AM 37.7N 63.6W 990 65 120 AUG 16 3.00 PM 38.5N 59.7W 993 60 111 AUG 17 3.00 AM 39.6N 55.5W 995 55 102 TRANSITIONING AUG 17 3.00 PM 42.9N 51.3W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.00 AM 46.9N 47.4W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.00 PM 51.6N 43.8W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 19 3.00 AM 57.6N 41.9W 986 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES. AS THE STORM UNDERGOES TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY..RAINFALL MAY BRUSH BY THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WINDS FROM IRENE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT. IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE OUTER GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS IRENE HAS INTENSIFIED TO A 70-KNOT HURRICANE AND REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE IMGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS LATE ON SUNDAY WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE WIND FIELD. THE DATA SHOW THAT IRENE IS A VERY COMPACT STORM WITH WINDS HIGHLY SKEWED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN FINE-TUNED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. B. PROGNOSTIC TRACK RATIONALE: IN THIS PACKAGE THE TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD..REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS FOR DOING THIS. FIRSTLY..THE DEEP TROPSPHERIC FLOW NORTH OF IRENE IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL. SECONDLY..500 MB VORTICITY CENTRES FROM THE GEM REG AND GLB RUNS..WHICH HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN USEFUL FOR TC TRACKING..ARE NEAR 38N/58W AT 17/00Z. FINALLY..OUR EXPERIMENTAL MODEL ALSO SHOWS IRENE AT 38N AT 17/00Z BUT IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO SLOW. THEREAFTER..A CURL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH PATTERN. INTENSITY RATIONALE: THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AND WE ARE NEARING OUR EARLIER EXPECTIONS OF 75-KT PEAK INTENSITY. CIMSS SHEAR TENDENCY PRODUCTS INDICATE LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN NEAR 28C FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR UNTIL IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N. HOWEVER..DURING THE 24- TO 48-HR PERIOD.. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AS IRENE UNDERGOES ET OVER THE OUTER GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY..A GRADUAL LOWERING OF MSLP AND LEVELLING-OFF IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED. THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OFF THE COAST OF GREENLAND ON FRIDAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER GFS AND GEM GLB SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE FROM IRENE DURING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BRUSH THE AVALON PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/06Z 80 120 80 40 40 60 20 20 25 25 0 0 15/18Z 90 120 80 40 40 60 20 20 25 25 0 0 16/06Z 100 125 90 50 50 65 30 25 20 20 0 0 16/18Z 130 125 95 60 60 70 40 30 0 0 0 0 17/06Z 130 140 100 60 55 70 40 25 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 130 155 105 65 50 70 40 25 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 140 170 110 75 45 65 35 25 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 150 175 110 85 45 55 35 25 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 165 180 110 95 45 55 35 25 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY