WOCN31 CWHX 151800 HURRICANE IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... IRENE MOVING NORTH OF BERMUDA BUT WELL SOUTH OF MARITIME WATERS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 N AND LONGITUDE 67.1 W... ABOUT 290 NAUTICAL MILES OR 540 KM NORTH NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 984 MB. IRENE IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 15 3.00 PM 36.8N 67.1W 984 75 139 AUG 16 3.00 AM 38.1N 63.6W 983 80 148 AUG 16 3.00 PM 39.3N 60.9W 990 70 130 AUG 17 3.00 AM 41.0N 57.5W 992 60 111 AUG 17 3.00 PM 43.0N 53.6W 995 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.00 AM 46.7N 48.6W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.00 PM 50.6N 44.5W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 19 3.00 AM 54.9N 40.0W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON PUBLIC AREAS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES. RAINFALL FROM IRENE MAY AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE OUTER GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS IRENE STILL LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN EAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH NO SIGN OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. B. PROGNOSTIC THE EASTERLY MOTION OF THE STORM INITIALLY SHOULD KEEP IT OVER WARM WATERS AND ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THAT MOST MODELS SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. IT SEEMS THAT IRENE WILL HAVE TO TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EVENTUALLY...AS A VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE A STEERING FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE IRENE TO CURL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. GEM GLOBAL SHOWS WHAT IS CLEARLY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTRE EAST OF THE AVALON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE REMAINS OF IRENE WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...OR IF THERE WILL BE A SINGLE STORM FURTHER EAST UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE AVALON SHOULD BE RECEIVING RAINFALL FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE FROM IRENE WILL LIKELY BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO THIS RAINFALL. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/18Z 90 120 80 40 40 60 20 20 30 30 0 0 16/06Z 110 130 90 50 50 70 30 20 30 30 0 0 16/18Z 130 130 90 50 60 70 30 20 10 10 0 0 17/06Z 130 140 100 50 50 70 30 20 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 130 150 100 60 50 70 30 20 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 140 160 100 60 50 60 30 20 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 150 170 100 70 50 60 30 20 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 160 170 100 80 50 60 30 20 0 0 0 0 END/MILLER