WOCN31 CWHX 160600 HURRICANE IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST TO CROSS GRAND BANKS WHILE BECOMING A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 N AND LONGITUDE 63.6 W... ABOUT 470 NAUTICAL MILES OR 870 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS... 148 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB. IRENE IS MOVING EAST AT 12 KNOTS...22 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 16 3.00 AM 36.7N 63.6W 980 80 148 AUG 16 3.00 PM 37.3N 60.8W 984 75 139 AUG 17 3.00 AM 39.1N 57.3W 989 65 120 AUG 17 3.00 PM 42.2N 52.8W 992 60 111 TRANSITIONING AUG 18 3.00 AM 46.5N 48.4W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.00 PM 51.6N 45.1W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 19 3.00 AM 57.7N 43.0W 977 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IRENE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM TO THE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. SOME RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IRENE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. ON THURSDAY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR ARE FORECAST ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE STORM DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE GRAND BANKS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE ARRIVAL OF IRENE. GALES AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT IRENE IS A STRONG HURRICANE WITH A PERSISTENT CDO. IRENE IS CURRENTLY OVER 28-DEGREE WATER. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY LATE MONDAY WAS VERY USEFUL FOR ESTIMATING THE WIND FIELD. AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 23Z MONDAY EVENING SHOWED SLIGHT EYEWALL EROSION ON THE WEST SIDE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF SHEAR- INDUCED SUBSIDENCE ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE STORM..AND PROBABLY A SIGN THAT IRENE'S INTENSITY HAS PEAKED. B. PROGNOSTIC THE FORECAST SPEED/TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NORTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT IRENE IS IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER WESTERLIES AND THE FORWARD MOTION MAY BE A BIT SLOWER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN OUR OFFICIAL TRACK. HAVING SAID THIS..I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A SOMWHAT SLOWER-MOVING STORM EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COMPARED WITH THE LAST PACKAGE. THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME AS BEFORE..IRENE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND DIGS FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING THE TRANSITIONING STORM OVER THE GRAND BANKS DURING THE LATTER PART OF WEDNESDAY. IF IRENE MOVES SLOWER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST..THE APPROACHING TROUGH COULD PICK UP THE STORM SOONER WHICH COULD LEAD TO A TRACK CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. THE TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BE COMPLETED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER TRANSITION..THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM TO THE SOUTH OF GREENLAND. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE EXPECTED RAINS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATED TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH..MOISTURE FROM IRENE..OR A MIXTURE OF THE TWO. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 16/06Z 90 100 70 50 40 45 40 30 20 30 20 0 16/18Z 90 110 70 50 40 45 40 30 20 30 20 0 17/06Z 90 120 80 50 50 60 50 30 20 20 20 0 17/18Z 100 140 90 60 60 80 60 40 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 140 200 150 120 90 120 90 50 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 200 270 230 180 130 150 130 80 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 250 350 300 250 160 190 160 100 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY