WOCN31 CWHX 170600 HURRICANE IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT WEDNESDAY 17 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT ... IRENE REMAINS ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 AM NDT... HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 N AND LONGITUDE 60.1 W... ABOUT 335 NAUTICAL MILES OR 620 KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS... 148 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 979 MB. IRENE IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH AUG 17 3.30 AM 36.5N 60.1W 979 80 148 AUG 17 3.30 PM 37.7N 57.1W 976 80 148 AUG 18 3.30 AM 40.7N 52.7W 980 75 139 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.30 PM 46.0N 46.4W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 19 3.30 AM 52.0N 40.3W 988 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 19 3.30 PM ABSORBED 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAINFALLS OVER AVALON PENINSULA OVERNIGHT ARE DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IRENE COULD FEED MOISTURE INTO THIS FRONT BUT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED FROM THE FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GRAND BANKS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IRENE HAD SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING BUT HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AGAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. AN EYE IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE ON THE IR PICTURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS. MOTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY TO THE EAST AT 8 KNOTS. B. PROGNOSTIC MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZES WITH A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A 500 MB TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MARITIMES. WE HAVE TO ADJUST OUR TRACK EASTWARD DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST HAS NOT YET OCCURRED. NEW TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON THURSDAY. IRENE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM THIS EVENING. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF IRENE'S CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AVALON PENINSULA MEANS THAT IT WILL NOT BE INVOLVED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NWP KEEPS THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM DISTINCT. BUT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THE MOISTURE WILL BE FED FROM IRENE INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 17/06Z 90 120 95 70 40 60 55 35 25 25 25 0 17/18Z 90 140 95 70 50 75 55 30 20 25 20 0 18/06Z 110 200 115 80 70 110 70 40 10 15 10 0 18/18Z 165 270 185 100 95 150 115 65 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 205 315 270 135 115 175 150 70 0 0 0 0 END/STEEVES