WOCN31 CWHX 171800
HURRICANE IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN 
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT WEDNESDAY
17 AUGUST 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT

 ... IRENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT... HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.6 N AND LONGITUDE 57.5 W... ABOUT 390 NAUTICAL MILES OR 725 KM 
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986
MB. IRENE IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 17  3.30 PM  37.6N  57.5W   986   65  120
AUG 18  3.30 AM  40.9N  52.8W   990   60  111 TRANSITIONING
AUG 18  3.30 PM  45.7N  47.1W   991   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 19  3.30 AM  52.0N  41.5W   987   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 19  3.30 PM  58.4N  38.4W   984   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS 
MAINLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE GRAND BANKS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON IRENE. 
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORM IS STILL OVER WARM SSTS THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS.  ALSO BECAUSE OF THE
SHEAR IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET A FIX ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD AREA SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING.

B. PROGNOSTIC

COMPUTER MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE FORECAST 
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE LARGE SCALE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY SO THERE IS LITTLE 
CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS.

AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING NORTH OF IRENE.
THE CONVECTION AND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE WARM 
SECTOR OF THIS LOW WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
AND DEEPENING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  IT IS QUESTIONABLE
JUST HOW LONG IRENE WILL REMAIN AS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE
BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL BE THE FAR MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR 
NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

IT IS THE FRONTAL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO GIVE RAIN OR SHOWERS
TO THE AVALON PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN INDIRECT EFFECT...IF ANY...ON THESE RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
17/18Z   50 120  80  50    30  90  70  30    20  30  20   0
18/06Z   70 150 100  70    40  90  70  30     0   0   0   0
18/18Z  120 250 150 100    80 150 100  60     0   0   0   0
19/06Z  200 320 200 120   120 180 150  70     0   0   0   0
19/18Z  230 360 320 160   130 200 180  90     0   0   0   0

END/MILLER