WOCN31 CWHX 180000
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT 
WEDNESDAY 17 AUGUST 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT

 ... IRENE IS WEAKENING BUT MAINTAINS ITS IDENTITY ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.30 PM NDT... TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.1 N AND LONGITUDE 54.5 W... ABOUT 380 NAUTICAL MILES OR 705 KM 
SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989
MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 17  9.30 PM  39.1N  54.5W   989   60  111
AUG 18  9.30 AM  44.1N  49.6W   991   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 18  9.30 PM  50.2N  44.5W   988   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 19  9.30 AM  58.0N  40.5W   985   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA
OF NEWFOUNDLAND BUT THE MOISTURE FROM IRENE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THIS AREA OF RAIN.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE GRAND BANKS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

IRENE HAS WEAKENED DUE TO A STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR THIS EVENING
BUT THE STORM STILL MAINTAINS A CLEAR IDENTITY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS...JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STORM HAS TAKEN A NORTHEASTERLY TURN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

B. PROGNOSTIC

COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN ACCELERATING IRENE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUE.

AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FORMED NORTH OF IRENE.
THE CONVECTION AND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE WARM 
SECTOR OF THIS LOW WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
AND DEEPENING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  IT IS QUESTIONABLE
JUST HOW LONG IRENE WILL REMAIN AS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE
BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT...AND THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL BE THE FAR MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR 
NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

THE MOISTURE FROM IRENE NOWS LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL PASS TOO FAR
TO THE EAST TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON PUBLIC AREAS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
18/00Z   50 120  80  50    30  90  70  30     0   0   0   0
18/12Z  100 170 130  90    70 120  90  50     0   0   0   0
19/00Z  160 300 180 110   100 160 120  60     0   0   0   0
19/12Z  220 340 260 140   120 190 170  80     0   0   0   0


END/MILLER/STEEVES