WOCN31 CWHX 290600 HURRICANE KATRINA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT MONDAY 29 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... HURRICANE KATRINA STILL ON TRACK TOWARDS NEW ORLÉANS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 N AND LONGITUDE 89.5 W... ABOUT 110 NAUTICAL MILES OR 210 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLÉANS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 140 KNOTS... 259 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 908 MB. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS... 18 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 29 3.00 AM 28.2N 89.5W 908 140 259 AUG 29 3.00 PM 30.5N 89.6W 910 120 222 AUG 30 3.00 AM 33.3N 88.9W 940 70 130 AUG 30 3.00 PM 36.2N 87.1W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 3.00 AM 39.2N 84.0W 996 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 3.00 PM 41.3N 80.8W 998 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 3.00 AM 44.2N 76.7W 998 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 3.00 PM 46.8N 72.8W 998 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 02 3.00 AM 49.4N 68.9W 998 25 46 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 NM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLÉANS LOUISIANA AND MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 908 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 KNOTS. B. PROGNOSTIC THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FOLLOW CLOSELY NHC UNTIL IT REACHES OUR RESPONSE ZONE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER THE REMNANT OF KATRINA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE THEN ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. BOTH THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL AND US GFS ARE DEVELOPING A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THURSDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN GEM BUT ENDS UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHER MODELS INDICATE A TRACK CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK AND WE DECIDED TO WAIT FOR NEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN QUÉBEC ON THURSDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 29/06Z 210 200 150 180 120 120 80 100 90 90 50 80 29/18Z 210 150 100 120 120 80 40 80 80 50 20 50 30/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 40 80 70 50 10 30 30/18Z 150 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END (GR)