WOCN31 CWHX 291200 CCA HURRICANE KATRINA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT MONDAY 29 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... MEDIA SOUNDBITE... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 N AND LONGITUDE 89.6 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OR 95 KM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLÉANS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS... 241 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 918 MB. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 29 9.00 AM 29.4N 89.6W 918 130 241 AUG 29 9.00 PM 31.9N 89.2W 965 95 176 AUG 30 9.00 AM 34.8N 88.0W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 9.00 PM 37.7N 85.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 9.00 AM 40.2N 82.4W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 9.00 PM 42.8N 78.8W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 9.00 AM 45.5N 74.8W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 9.00 PM 48.1N 70.8W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS OF LOUISIANA MOVING NORTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 13 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 130 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. B. PROGNOSTIC THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FOLLOW CLOSELY NHC UNTIL IT REACHES OUR RESPONSE ZONE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER THE REMNANT OF KATRINA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE THEN ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. KATRINA MAY LOSE ITS INDENTITY AS IT DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL AND US GFS INDICATE A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THURSDAY. KATRINA MAY HAVE LOST ITS IDENTITY BY THAT TIME. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE CANADIAN GEM BUT ENDS UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHER MODELS INDICATE A TRACK CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK. NEW MODEL RUNS TODAY WILL HELP TO DETERMINE THE MOVEMENT AND BEHAVIOR OF THE REMAINS OF KATRINA BEYOND 48 HRS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN QUÉBEC ON THURSDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 29/12Z 200 175 125 150 110 100 60 90 85 70 35 65 30/00Z 175 150 100 120 100 85 40 80 75 50 15 40 30/12Z 100 140 75 100 40 40 30 30 0 0 0 0 31/00Z 75 75 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END ROUSSEL/MARSHALL