WOCN31 CWHX 300000 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.00 PM EDT MONDAY 29 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2.00 AM EDT ...KATRINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD MARCH ACROSS MISSISSIPPI... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 8.00 PM EDT... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 N AND LONGITUDE 88.9 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 120 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 990 MB. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND EDT MB KTS KMH AUG 29 8.00 PM 32.9N 88.9W 965 60 111 AUG 30 8.00 AM 36.0N 88.1W 978 40 74 AUG 30 8.00 PM 39.1N 85.5W 990 30 56 AUG 31 8.00 AM 42.0N 81.3W 999 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 8.00 PM 45.6N 76.0W 1004 25 46 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 8.00 AM 48.3N 71.8W 1008 25 46 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 8.00 PM 50.7N 68.5W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL SEP 02 8.00 AM 52.4N 66.8W 1012 20 37 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUÉBEC. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ONTARIO AND QUÉBEC. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AS THE STORM APPROACHES. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF LABRADOR. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG WINDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER ALSO. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 18 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 965 MB WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 60 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS KATRINA MOVES NORTHWARD OVER LAND. HOWEVER KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. B. PROGNOSTIC THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FOLLOW CLOSELY THOSE FORECAST BY NHC. FINE DETAILS OF THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE STILL UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE INTERACTION OF KATRINA WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK WILL PARALLEL THE AXIS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY NARROW SO SMALL CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK WILL RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES IN THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN. ONCE AGAIN FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD WHICH WILL REDUCE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMMENSURATELY. REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EQUIVALENT TO NEARLY A MONTH'S WORTH OF RAIN IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. C. PUBLIC WEATHER. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL QUÉBEC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF LABRADOR BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY. D. MARINE WEATHER STRONG WINDS FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM A SEICHE MAY ALSO BE GENERATED ON LAKE ERIE. ALSO STRONG WINDS MAY BE SEEN ALONG THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 30/00Z 125 150 125 100 100 125 75 75 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 50 50 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END BULLOCK/MARSHALL