WOCN31 CWHX 300600 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 AM EDT TUESDAY 30 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8.00 AM EDT ...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WEAKENING RAPIDLY IN ITS NORTHWARD TREK... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 2.00 AM EDT... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 N AND LONGITUDE 87.9 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 145 KM NORTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 978 MB. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 41 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND EDT MB KTS KMH AUG 30 2.00 AM 34.5N 87.9W 978 45 83 AUG 30 2.00 PM 38.3N 85.1W 988 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 2.00 AM 41.1N 80.9W 995 25 46 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 2.00 PM 43.5N 76.0W 999 25 46 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 2.00 AM 46.1N 71.3W 999 25 46 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 2.00 PM 49.8N 67.3W 999 25 46 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUÉBEC LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK ON THURSDAY. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ONTARIO AND QUÉBEC AND WILL BE ISSUED FOR NEW BRUNSWICK. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AS THE STORM APPROACHES. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG WINDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER ALSO. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. WIND SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVES NORTHWARD OVER LAND. B. PROGNOSTIC THE TRACK FOLLOWS FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE NHC TRACK. DETAILS OF THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE STILL UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE INTERACTION OF KATRINA WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA STRIPPING WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS KATRINA'S REMNANTS BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS IT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE TRACK OF KATRINA'S REMNANTS WILL PARALLEL THE AXIS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY NARROW SO SMALL CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK WILL RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES IN THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN. FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL REDUCE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS. AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. C. PUBLIC WEATHER HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN QUÉBEC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK FOR THURSDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY. D. MARINE WEATHER STRONG WINDS FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM A SEICHE MAY ALSO BE GENERATED ON LAKE ERIE. ALSO STRONG WINDS MAY BE SEEN ALONG THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 30/06Z 75 75 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END MARSHALL