WOCN31 CWHX 301800 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 PM EDT TUESDAY 30 AUGUST 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8.00 PM EDT ...ALTHOUGH KATRINA HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION THE RAIN IT BRINGS STILL POSES A THREAT... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 2.00 PM EDT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 N AND LONGITUDE 86.9 W... ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES OR 310 KM WEST NORTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS... 56 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 991 MB. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND EDT MB KTS KMH AUG 30 2.00 PM 37.4N 86.9W 991 30 56 AUG 31 2.00 AM 40.4N 82.5W 993 30 56 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 2.00 PM 43.7N 76.6W 995 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 2.00 AM 47.6N 70.3W 991 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 01 2.00 PM 51.4N 68.1W 985 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 02 2.00 AM 54.3N 66.9W 984 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY ONTARIO..HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE LOWER LAKES AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE QUÉBEC BORDER. QUÉBEC..HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT REGULAR PUBLIC FORECAST. MARITIMES..SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STRONG WINDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF KATRINA. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT KATRINA IS WELL ALONG IN ITS TRANSITION TO A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE LOW CENTRE IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION IS STREAMING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE LEADING EDGE NOW OVER LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEVELOPING A CHARACTERISTIC COMMA SHAPE. WITHOUT TOO MUCH IMAGINATION ONE COULD INFER THE PRESENCE OF WEAK WARM AND COLD FRONTS AT THE SURFACE. B. PROGNOSTIC KATRINA WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS PLEASE CONSULT THE REGULAR PUBLIC FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE AFFECTED REGIONS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL BE INGESTED INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUÉBEC. C. PUBLIC WEATHER ONTARIO..HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE QUÉBEC BORDER. QUÉBEC..HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUÉBEC MAINLY ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MARITIMES..SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY THERE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALLS FROM ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. D. MARINE WEATHER STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END BULLOCK/MILLER