WOCN31 CWHX 131800
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT 
TUESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

 ... REMNANTS OF OPHELIA TO APPROACH ATLANTIC CANADA LATER
     THIS WEEK ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.7 N AND LONGITUDE 78.3 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 120 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 989 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 4 KNOTS... 7 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 13  3.00 PM  32.7N  78.3W   989   60  111
SEP 14  3.00 AM  33.4N  78.1W   987   65  120
SEP 14  3.00 PM  34.5N  77.5W   987   65  120
SEP 15  3.00 AM  35.2N  76.3W   987   65  120
SEP 15  3.00 PM  35.9N  74.8W   990   60  111
SEP 16  3.00 AM  36.4N  73.6W   990   60  111
SEP 16  3.00 PM  37.9N  71.0W   990   60  111
SEP 17  3.00 AM  39.8N  67.5W   994   55  102
SEP 17  3.00 PM  42.6N  62.4W   997   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18  3.00 AM  44.8N  57.0W   998   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18  3.00 PM  49.1N  49.1W   998   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD REACH
THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE SLOPE WATERS AND THE GRAND BANKS SHOULD SEE GALES ON THE
WEEKEND.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA HAS BEEN DOING MANY SLOW LOOPS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
AND THE CAROLINAS SINCE LAST WEEK. ITS INTENSITY HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE FINALLY MAKING A MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH. MOST 
NUMERICAL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT IT WILL TRACK TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA LATER THIS WEEK. THE STORM HAS A HISTORY OF ERRATIC MOTION
SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN WATERS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

GIVEN THE SPEED THAT OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING LATER THIS
WEEK ... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
13/18Z  140 120 100 100    70  60  50  50     0   0   0   0
14/06Z  140 120 100 100    70  60  50  50    40   0   0   0
14/18Z  140 120 120 100    70  60  50  40    40  40  30  30
15/06Z  140 120  90  90    70  60  50  50    40  40  30  30
15/18Z  140 120  90  90    70  60  50  50     0   0   0   0
16/06Z  140 120  90  90    60  60  50  50     0   0   0   0
16/18Z  140 140  90  90    60  60  60  45     0   0   0   0
17/06Z  140 160 100  90    60  80  40  20     0   0   0   0
17/18Z  120 140  90  80    50  60  20  10     0   0   0   0
18/06Z  100 120  90  70     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/18Z   90 120  90  60     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END MILLER