WOCN31 CWHX 140000 HURRICANE OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT TUESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... OPHELIA EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS WEEKEND.. POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 N AND LONGITUDE 78.0 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 120 KM SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS... 7 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 13 9.00 PM 32.9N 78.0W 987 65 120 SEP 14 9.00 AM 33.9N 77.6W 987 65 120 SEP 14 9.00 PM 34.7N 76.6W 987 65 120 SEP 15 9.00 AM 35.4N 75.3W 987 65 120 SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.3N 73.7W 987 65 120 SEP 16 9.00 AM 37.3N 71.9W 990 60 111 SEP 16 9.00 PM 39.0N 69.0W 994 55 102 SEP 17 9.00 AM 41.3N 64.3W 997 50 93 SEP 17 9.00 PM 44.0N 58.8W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 AM 46.5N 53.0W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 PM 49.0N 46.0W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER LAND..HOWEVER..OPHELIA IS STILL VERY FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD CHANGE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRAND BANKS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE WEEKEND WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS AS IT CREEPS TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT RECON CONFIRM THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS TIGHTENING UP. THE STORM IS NOW OVER THE GULF STREAM. B. PROGNOSTIC IN THE SHORT TERM..OPHELIA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT SINCE IT IS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND THE CORE IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. GIVEN THAT IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE OUTER GRAND BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA..SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL OPHELIA MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OVER COOLER WATERS. WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THE STORM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA..BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOVA SCOTIA WILL RECEIVE SOME RAIN FROM THIS STORM AS WILL SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED PREDICTIONS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER OPHELIA WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHEN IT ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS..THEREFORE THE RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY BE SKEWED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 14/00Z 140 120 100 100 70 60 50 50 40 20 0 0 14/12Z 140 120 110 100 70 60 50 40 40 20 0 0 15/00Z 140 120 110 90 70 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 15/12Z 140 120 90 90 70 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 16/00Z 140 120 90 90 60 60 50 50 40 40 20 20 16/12Z 140 130 90 90 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0 17/00Z 140 150 90 90 60 80 40 20 0 0 0 0 17/12Z 130 150 90 80 60 80 40 20 0 0 0 0 18/00Z 110 130 90 80 50 60 20 10 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 90 120 90 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 90 120 90 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/MILLER