WOCN31 CWHX 150000 HURRICANE OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND THIS WEEKEND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 N AND LONGITUDE 76.8 W...ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 150 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 979 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS...11 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 14 9.00 PM 34.4N 76.8W 979 75 139 SEP 15 9.00 AM 35.1N 75.9W 979 75 139 SEP 15 9.00 PM 35.7N 74.8W 980 75 139 SEP 16 9.00 AM 36.8N 73.3W 987 65 120 SEP 16 9.00 PM 37.9N 71.4W 990 60 111 SEP 17 9.00 AM 40.0N 68.0W 994 55 102 SEP 17 9.00 PM 42.7N 63.5W 997 50 93 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 9.00 AM 45.1N 57.8W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 PM 47.1N 52.1W 996 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 AM 49.1N 46.0W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS WEEKEND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRAND BANKS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WEEKEND. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE EYE HAS REMAINED WELL DEFINED ON RADAR FROM NORTH CAROLINA. B. PROGNOSTIC A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING SHOULD CAUSE OPHELIA TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. AFTER THAT A SECOND MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE STORM TOWARD CANADIAN WATERS. FOR THE SECOND ISSUE IN A ROW THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN SLIGHTLY WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO THE EAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA TO MOVE THE FORECAST ANY CLOSER TO LAND. THIS LATEST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE STORM BRUSHING THE AVALON PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY. WITH THE TRACK NOW A BIT FURTHER WEST THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF LATITUDE 41N. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MILD REINTENSIFICATION AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST STILL HAS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE OF THE VARIETY OF NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER UPDATES SHOULD BE MONITORED. C. PUBLIC WEATHER MODELS AGREE THAT OPHELIA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHEN IT ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS. THAT MEANS WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE RAIN SHIELD ROTATE NORTH AND THEN WEST OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK SO THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK POSES THE GREATEST THREAT TO THE AVALON PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/00Z 120 120 100 70 60 60 60 45 30 30 40 30 15/12Z 120 120 100 65 60 60 60 45 30 30 30 20 16/00Z 120 120 100 80 60 60 60 45 30 30 30 20 16/12Z 120 120 100 90 60 60 60 50 20 20 20 0 17/00Z 130 140 100 90 60 70 60 40 0 0 0 0 17/12Z 140 160 110 80 70 90 50 30 0 0 0 0 18/00Z 150 170 120 70 60 80 40 20 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 160 180 130 60 50 70 40 10 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 160 190 140 50 40 60 40 10 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 160 200 150 50 40 50 30 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/MILLER