WOCN31 CWHX 150600 HURRICANE OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...RAIN AND WIND FROM OPHELIA FORECAST OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND THIS WEEKEND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 N AND LONGITUDE 76.1 W... ABOUT 49 NAUTICAL MILES OR 90 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 981MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS...11 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 15 3.00 AM 34.6N 76.1W 981 75 139 SEP 15 3.00 PM 35.0N 75.2W 982 75 139 SEP 16 3.00 AM 35.8N 74.0W 984 70 130 SEP 16 3.00 PM 37.1N 72.3W 988 65 120 SEP 17 3.00 AM 39.3N 70.0W 990 60 111 SEP 17 3.00 PM 41.6N 66.9W 992 55 102 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 3.00 AM 43.7N 62.7W 992 55 102 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 3.00 PM 45.7N 58.2W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 AM 47.6N 52.0W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 PM 49.5N 45.4W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND WIND SHOULD SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE LATEST TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA OVER GEORGES AND LAHAVE BANKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORM. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE CENTER IS REMAINING OVER WATER. THE INTENSITY REMAINS RATHER STEADY AND THE EYE IS STILL CLEAR IN SATELIITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. B. PROGNOSTIC A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE US AND PUSH OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST. THAT WILL BRING THE REMNANTS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE STORM OVER 25-26C SSTS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD BUT REMAIN AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA..GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER..THE MODERATELY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY KEEP OPHELIA FROM WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR 17/06 UTC SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND BE COMPLETE AROUND 18/18 UTC SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND ACCORDING TO CYCLONE PHASE SPACE (CPS) ANALYSIS FROM THE GFDL MODEL. C. PUBLIC WEATHER OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM UNDERGOING ET AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. GIVEN THAT WE NOW EXPECT THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSE TO NOVA SCOTIA..GUSTY WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS. IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY TO GO INTO DETAILS REGARDING WIND STRENGTH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS..BUT THIS TYPE OF STORM COULD EASY DROP 75-100 MM OF RAIN AND GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 KM/H ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPCOMING FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS AS TO HOW OPHELIA WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. D. MARINE WEATHER AS OPHELIA TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST..LARGE SWELLS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA GIVING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/06Z 120 120 100 65 60 60 60 45 30 30 35 25 15/18Z 120 120 100 70 60 60 60 45 30 30 30 20 16/06Z 120 120 100 85 60 60 60 45 25 25 25 10 16/18Z 125 130 100 90 60 65 60 45 10 10 10 0 17/06Z 135 150 105 85 65 80 55 35 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 145 165 115 75 65 85 45 25 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 155 175 125 65 55 75 40 15 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 160 185 135 55 45 65 40 10 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 160 195 145 50 40 55 35 5 0 0 0 0 19/18Z 160 205 155 50 40 45 25 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY