WOCN31 CWHX 151800 HURRICANE OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... OPHELIA WEAKENING AND MOVING SLOWLY NEAR NORTH CAROLINA ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 N AND LONGITUDE 75.5 W... ABOUT 25 NAUTICAL MILES OR 50 KM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 983 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 15 3.00 PM 34.8N 75.5W 983 70 130 SEP 16 3.00 AM 35.4N 74.6W 987 65 120 SEP 16 3.00 PM 36.3N 73.8W 987 65 120 SEP 17 3.00 AM 38.1N 72.0W 990 60 111 SEP 17 3.00 PM 41.0N 68.8W 995 55 102 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 3.00 AM 43.6N 64.6W 994 50 93 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 3.00 PM 45.9N 59.5W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 AM 47.3N 54.6W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 PM 50.3N 48.8W 996 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PROVINCE. THE RAIN AND WIND SHOULD REACH CAPE BRETON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL PUBLIC WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WOCN11 ISSUED AT 1:10 PM ADT. FURTHER DETAILS WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE STORM GETS CLOSER. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE LATEST TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORM. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. B. PROGNOSTIC THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS BECAUSE OF THE WEAK STEERING FLOW DURING THE INITIAL PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY WHEN IT PASSES ATLANTIC CANADA. SOME TRACK MODELS INDICATE A SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE TRACK AS IT APPROACHES ATLANTIC CANADA. WE PREFER TO KEEP A TRACK SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS BECAUSE IT IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM SUCH AS GFS AND OUR EXPERIMENTAL MESO-GLOBAL. OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE STORM OVER COOLER WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM. C. PUBLIC WEATHER OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. GUSTY WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE COAST WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. IT IS STILL QUITE EARLY TO GO INTO DETAILS BUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD EASILY PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 75-100 MM OF RAIN. WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 90 KM/H ARE LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST WOULD PLACE SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 90 KM/H ARE LIKELY OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA. D. MARINE WEATHER AS OPHELIA TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LARGE SWELLS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA GIVING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE STORM NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE WHEN THE STORM REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/18Z 120 120 100 50 60 60 60 35 35 35 30 25 16/06Z 120 120 100 60 60 60 60 40 35 35 30 25 16/18Z 120 120 100 80 60 60 50 50 20 20 10 10 17/06Z 120 120 100 90 60 60 50 50 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 140 150 110 80 60 80 50 30 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 150 170 120 70 50 70 40 20 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 160 180 130 60 40 60 30 10 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 160 190 150 50 40 50 30 0 0 0 0 0 19/18Z 160 200 160 50 40 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 END MILLER