WOCN31 CWHX 160000 HURRICANE OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...OPHELIA ALMOST STALLED OFF CAPE HATTERAS..FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 N AND LONGITUDE 75.3 W... ABOUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES OR 35 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING NORTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS...5 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 15 9.00 PM 35.0N 75.3W 989 65 120 SEP 16 9.00 AM 35.7N 74.3W 987 65 120 SEP 16 9.00 PM 37.4N 72.8W 987 65 120 SEP 17 9.00 AM 39.8N 70.3W 990 60 111 SEP 17 9.00 PM 42.5N 66.9W 995 55 102 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 9.00 AM 45.0N 61.7W 993 50 93 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 9.00 PM 46.8N 56.7W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 AM 49.0N 50.4W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 PM 51.7N 45.7W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PROVINCE. THE RAIN AND WIND SHOULD REACH CAPE BRETON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. DETAILS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FORM OF PUBLIC FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ON FRIDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE LATEST TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORM. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA HAS IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND ACTUALLY APPEARED TO STALL FOR A WHILE EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT RADAR IMAGERY FROM NORTH CAROLINA SHOWS THAT THE CORE IS STILL INTACT. SSTS ARE NEAR 27C BENEATH THE STORM SO IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. B. PROGNOSTIC THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CONVEY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE STORM STARTS TO MAKE A DEFINITE MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SO SLOWLY TODAY..THE TIMING OF OPHELIA'S ARRIVAL NEAR NOVA SCOTIA IS DELAYED TILL LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA COULD TRACK ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK TO SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER INDICATION OF WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN THE NEXT SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMES IN LATER THIS EVENING. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SINCE OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA..GUSTY WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE COAST WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD EASILY PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 75-100 MM. WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 90 KM/H ARE LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST WOULD PLACE SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 90 KM/H ARE LIKELY OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA. D. MARINE WEATHER AS OPHELIA TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LARGE SWELLS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA GIVING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE STORM..NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE WHEN THE STORM REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 16/00Z 120 120 100 50 60 60 60 35 35 35 0 0 16/12Z 120 120 100 70 60 60 60 40 35 35 0 0 17/00Z 120 120 100 80 60 60 50 50 20 20 0 0 17/12Z 120 120 100 90 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0 18/00Z 150 160 120 70 60 80 50 30 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 160 180 130 60 50 70 40 20 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 160 190 140 60 40 60 30 10 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 160 200 160 50 45 50 30 0 0 0 0 0 20/00Z 160 210 170 50 40 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/MILLER